Opening of sessions: this is how the markets react after Alberto Fernández’s speech

This is confirmed by the economist from Epyca Consultores, Joel Lupieri, who expected, a priori, that “Alberto’s speech should have been one of the determinants of the day in terms of local markets” and could have caused the bonds to move depending on what was announced, but he assures that the markets “reacted with great indifference, at least in the variable income tranche, that is, the shares, which hardly moved”.

Meanwhile, Lupieri considers that, as happened in the last presentations, “speech fell short” in economic matters and it was not enough to turn the public debt green on the panels. In fact, he comments that “bonds are operating strongly negative, falling almost 3%.” Although the trend was prior to the speech, he assesses that it could be the product of the lack of premises about the economic direction, as well as some outlined criticisms of the IMF made by the president.

The same behavior is seen in the foreign exchange markets, only a very slight movement is observed in the dynamics of the Merval, which opened higher during the day and then fell slightly. All this occurs in a mostly negative day on the New York stock market, Wall Street, the world’s thermometer, which is clearly not influenced in any way by the Argentine president’s speech.

The low expectation was confirmed

Thus, as the economist expert in markets Christian Buteler anticipated earlier, the market did not show significant reactions to Fernández’s speech this Wednesday and believes that this is due to the fact that the president “is going through his last year in office and has a strong wear, so what he has been saying is not very relevant to the trend of the markets in the day”.

And it is that, as Alra points out, “the market, today is more focused on the elections this year than in the opening speech of the sessions, although the government that is saying goodbye is looked askance, but more attention is paid to the possible paths that the next administration could choose ”.

Mateo Reschini, Inviu’s Senior Research Analyst, has the same perspective, sustaining that “there was not much expectation of what the president could say in terms of announcements at the opening of Congress”. And that was confirmed in the facts, since it was a speech more focused on highlighting the achievements of his administration than on anticipating changes to come.

What the market sees

Reschini comments that it could have been decisive if the president had announced something regarding what was agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in terms of making goals more flexible. “We were waiting for that, mainly, because the BCRA reserves are far, at this moment, from the goals”, says Reschini.

In this sense, going forward, the expectation is set on the surprises that could emerge from the conformation of the candidates of the ruling party, given that the opposition front already seems to be quite predictable. And some traders believe that, at some point, the Argentine capital market should begin to digest electoral expectations and thus begin to decouple from global pessimism.