The local market operated cautiously this Monday before a waiting period imposed by investors due to expectations about a potential debt swap to clear upcoming maturities, while the country negotiates with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) a reduction in the reserves goals of the Central Bank (BCRA).
BYMA’s S&P Merval Leading Stock Index rose 1.3%, to 248,948.26 units, led by the improvement in energy shares, where the shares of the oil company YPF rose 2.7%. “The market awaits (on Friday…) the presentation of YPF’s results, whose forecasts are significantly better from the year-on-year point of view,” an analyst commented.
Find out more – I followed the price of the blue dollar, official, CCL and MEP in Argentina
On Wall Street, Argentine shares traded with advances of up to more than 4%led by Take off (+4.2%); YPF (+3.9%); and Cresud (+3.6%).
The main bankers and executives of insurance companies would meet on Monday with officials from the Ministry of Economy with the aim of clearing the debt maturities in pesos, sources close to the meeting told Reuters.
“At first glance, the “potential” structure of the exchange is not so striking since it only covers the instruments until June (as they did in previous exchanges, only the quarter), but with the particularity of stretching duration with dual bonds maturing in 2024/2025 “commented Portfolio Personal Inversiones.
“We do not believe that this attempt to “kick” the peso problem is out of the ordinary and would be a way to soften the issuance for the repurchase of securities in the secondary market. However, we are not specifically optimistic about its result either”he claimed.
On the other hand, the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, announced over the weekend the implementation of a special exchange rate to encourage exports from regional economieswhich seeks to strengthen the central bank’s reserves at a time when a severe drought hits the country’s exports.
In the exchange market, the BCRA managed to buy barely 18 million dollars from the market last week. “The latest projections of the harvest and its impact on Argentine exports force us to recalculate the flow of foreign currency and growth for 2023”said Delphos Investment and added that “the gross reserves (of the BCRA) would fall around 10,000 million dollars, as a result of the consequent adjustment of imports in an environment of less internal activity.”
In the external context, the markets operated cautiously, in a week in which the president of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, will speak, and employment data will be known that could decide the pace of future interest rate hikes.
In fixed income, sovereign bonds in dollars improved by 0.7% on average, amid reduced and selective business operations. Bonds ended last week slightly lower, averaging 0.1%. “The IRR of the AL30 bond already exceeds 42% and drags its price towards 26 dollars. While the GD30 has a yield of around 36%, placing parity slightly above 30%”, recalled Mauro Natalucci, from Rava Bursátil.
Country risk measured by JP Morgan bank it fell 26 units to 2,066 basis points.
Source: Ambito
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