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According to official data, total debt is equivalent to 74% of GDP

If the variation in the public debt contracted by Finance with the Central Bank is taken into account, a increase in September of US $ 1,245 million and US $ 11,655 million in the accumulated of the first nine months of the year. From the information obtained by Finance, the partial cancellation of some of the financial commitments of the Central Administration was the income of US $ 4300 million derived from the SDR of the International Monetary Fund.

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Financing

According to the payroll of the Ministry of Finance, the net financing obtained amounted to US $ 9002 million, while the maturities paid amounted to US $ 12,375 million, including US $ 1,890 million of a fee with the International Monetary Fund that the Minister of Economy Martín Guzmán presented in his meeting with Kristalina Georgieva as a sign of “good will” to reach consensus on the debt. Another important fact is that despite the acceleration of inflation and the increase in the exchange rate, the differences recorded by adjustment of public bonds with CER clause and by variation of the dollar were neutral (more than US $ 916 million in the first case and less than u $ s902 million in the second).

Pressures for agreement

For the bondholders with government securities issued under international law that entered the debt swap last August, it is now or never. They believe that it is the last moment to put pressure on the International Monetary Fund (IMF), with the objective of getting the organization to demand strong conditions from the country in the eventual Extended Facilities.

This includes the toughest possible monetary, fiscal, exchange rate, and macroeconomic targets. Alerted by the rumors that arise from the negotiations between the Argentine government and the officials of the organization, about the possibility of a somewhat light agreement for two years; An operation began last week for the Fund to harden its position and demand from the country “the usual conditions for an agreement of this type”, according to the interpretation that one of the funds transmitted to this medium.

The fear of funds is concrete and punctual. They consider that without the signing of a classic Extended Facilities (in its toughness) and the requirement of meeting specific goals during the period in which the country should not make payments (until the second half of 2026), their holdings in restructured bonds they will continue in default prices. And, consequently, they will continue with their financial assets at a value lower than the cut-off Net Present Value of the August exchange of last year, of 54.8%.

The titles launched in the restructuring today show a value of between 32.8 and 37.9%; a level that analysts call “distressed.” The main fear of the bondholders is that only towards the end of 2024, the year in which the capital payment of the bonds should begin to be applied; These government securities would have practically no commercial value in the international capital market; with which they should remain in the investors’ portfolios. Obviously it is a problem that for the economic team managed by Martín Guzmán, is not among the priorities of the negotiations with the IMF. This is why investment funds know that the only bullet should be aimed at the IMF.

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