At the end of this week, the spread with the wholesale exchange rate, which is regulated by the Central Bank, climbed to 96,2%, an unprecedented level so far this year but still far from the 150% that was observed exactly one year ago.
The financial analyst Christian Buteler He remarked to this media that the acceleration of the price is logical considering the acceleration of inflation. “If the peso falls against all prices in the economy, why wouldn’t it do so against the blue dollar?” He said.
Regarding the ceiling that the currency can reach, the specialist said that it fundamentally depends on how monetary policy behaves.
“We are concluding another week with the exchange rate under pressure and a government that chooses an economic program of radicalization, in an attempt to reverse the electoral result, which leads to an increasing issuance of pesos and fiscal deterioration. This has been happening since the PASO The expectation of the agents is that this path deepens everything we are seeing: higher inflation and pressure on the dollar, “he said. Pedro Siaba Serrate, Fixed Income Strategist at PPI.
In tune with this view, the economist Gustavo Ber affirmed that the “upward slide in freer exchange rates reflects a process of greater dollarization from a climate of political and economic uncertainty.”
In the market, they also argue that the greater demand for the blue dollar is probably also a correlate of the latest restrictions to operate with financial dollars, probably and the expectation of a shortage that this caused.
Gustavo Neffa, Director of Research for Traders, foresees a reduction in the gap but not necessarily because of a greater calm in parallel dollars but because he thinks that the Government and the Central Bank will be forced to validate a higher adjustment of the official exchange rate , taking into account the context of normal coverage for an electoral stage and against the monetary expansion announced by the Government.
“I see a discrete jump after the elections and then an increase in the devaluation path (which is currently in the order of only 1% per month),” he projected.
With the rebound on Wednesday, the price of the dollar in the parallel market accumulates an advance of $ 9 (4.8%) so far this month.
During September, the blue dollar registered a rise of $ 4.50 (+ 2.5%), after posting its lowest rise since March in August, climbing just $ 1 (+ 0.6%). After hitting a low of $ 139 in early April, the parallel dollar increased $ 9 in April (6.4%), $ 7 (4.7%) in May, $ 11 (7%) in June, and $ 12.50 (+ 7.4%) in July.
The nominal historical record of the blue dollar was recorded on October 23, 2020, when the price shot up to $ 195. That day the gap registered a record 150%. Meanwhile, the maximum level of the gap in 2021 was noted in January when it reached 94.8%.
David William is a talented author who has made a name for himself in the world of writing. He is a professional author who writes on a wide range of topics, from general interest to opinion news. David is currently working as a writer at 24 hours worlds where he brings his unique perspective and in-depth research to his articles, making them both informative and engaging.
