The inflation data for March will be released this Friday and there is an expectation regarding the fixed term rates. Analysts anticipate in the City when news would arrive.
As every Thursday, this April 13, the Central Bank (BCRA) holds its usual board meeting and the expectation this week is set in What will the agency have regarding the rate of the fixed term, which is currently at 78% (the annual nominal), with an annual effective (TEA) of 112.9% and a performance monthly of 6.41%.
This Friday the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) will announce the inflation data for March, which is estimated to be around 7% and this encourages rumors about a possible rate hike, in line with what happened last month, when it was raised by 300 basis points this index after knowing the price evolution data for February, which was 6.6%.
Many analysts in the City hope that a rise in the yields of the instruments in pesos around 200 basis points in the coming days, to bring it to 80%, with a TEA of 117% and set the effective monthly rate at 6.6%. If this projection is confirmed, the performance for the month would be in line with February inflationbut, behind the March projections.
Fixed term: why the BCRA would not raise the rate this week
But that news, as he may have learned Ambitwould not arrive this week, since the board meeting is this Thursday, one day before the inflation data, and Miguel Pesce is in the United States at this time, at the meeting of central bank directors.
Also, the agro dollar began to have its first results this Wednesday, when the beginning of the liquidations under this modality was registered. On the third day of the program, US$94 million in soybean exports entered, which allowed the BCRA bag in the official exchange market about US$2 million. This brings some calm and optimism to the market. Which also eases anxiety about the rate for the time being.
And, on the other hand, the new regulations of the National Securities Commission, which extended the parking terms for bonds in the financial dollar market (Cash With Liquidation, CCL) lowered the prices of that exchange rate, although with a bullish side effect in the blue.
Fixed term: what if they do not adjust the rate in April?
However, the economist Frederick Glustein doubts that possibility because he considers that the BCRA “He will try to assess the April inflation projections before raising the rate again.” So, it says that sees it unlikely that the rate will rise this month and explains that this is also justified by the fact that the TEA is still above the inflation projection of 105% for the year.
Glustein anticipates that, with inflation data for April on the table, Yes, there would surely have to be a rate adjustment, because the annual projection could go up. “The issue is that, if each time the inflation data is higher, the rate is raised, it ends up being a regressive policy,” he explains. Thus, he considers that, if he adjusts the fixed-term yields in pesos upwards, he will do so conservatively (around 200 basis points) and believes that “for it to make sense, you should make a setting of 500, at least”.
Source: Ambito
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