He Dolar blue arrived this thursday at $400 in the City of Buenos Aires and jumped almost $10 in three days. Analysts attribute this to several variables, one of which is the new regulation of dollar bonds for the purchase of the dollar Cash With Liquidation (CCL) and another, the evolution of inflation. This happens despite the fact that the agricultural dollar is pulling currencies to the Central Bank (BCRA), who made his biggest purchase of the year on Thursday in the official exchange market. The outlook is worrying and the market explains what is happening and how the illegal dollar will continue.
Gustavo Quintana, from PR Operadores de Cambio, begins by telling Ambit that “the market for Dolar blue it is a small market in which trend changes have an impact” and considers that the rise these days is due to a lower supply and a readjustment of prices, after a few weeks with relative calm.
And it is that, as explained by the EcoGo economist, Lucio Garay Méndez, “the Dolar blue It is in the area of $380-$400, but, with the inflation levels that we currently manage in Argentina, this exchange rate became much cheaper in real terms”.
Raise the blue: inflation and exchange rate delay, a reason
The same is the opinion of Lorena Di Giorgio, director of Equilibra, who maintains that, “if one has a not so short-term perspective, we can say that blue is doing its inflationary catch-up”, given that, this year, this parallel exchange rate is still advancing below inflation.
However, going towards the more short-term reasons, Garay Méndez considers that a central element is the election year context, added to all the political noise and the background of the last PASO of 2019, which generated a skyrocket in exchange rates. That, she argues, “encourages the dollar demand”.
The electoral landscape, another reason
It happens that, as indicated by Di Giorgio, at the moment, there is a strong uncertainty in the political sphere with regard to the PASO, with ruptures both within the ruling party and the opposition. That opens the door to multiple electoral scenarios that might be not so well received by the market.
Thus, analysts make it clear that with each passing day we are closer to the choices STEP and public disputes begin to appear, the first definitions regarding candidacies are approaching and in a context of unpredictability, taking refuge in the dollar is an option that becomes tempting.
The dollar ago, a double meaning signal
On the other hand, Di Giorgio affirms that the implementation of the agricultural dollar, although it favors the entry of US currency into the BCRA reserves, “does nothing more than reconfirm the shortage of dollars from the BCRA and anticipate a large mass of pesos that will pour into the economy in 45 days”, putting pressure on financial dollars.
Let us remember that the soybean exporter receives $300 per dollar, almost 40% above the official wholesale exchange rate, which is around $212 today. That price difference is set by the BCRA and the expectation is that those pesos that the farm will receive could become dollars in the coming months, which would put pressure on the exchange rates.
“The market is anticipating this, along with potential new restrictions, being the outbound tourism segment the main candidate to be affected. For this reason, it is not strange that an early dollarization is taking place, precisely at an exchange rate that remained below the financial ones and well below the card or Qatar dollar”, observes Di Giorgio in this regard.
The dollar is curbed mash
And finally, the economist considers that one element that is generating a rise in the illegal exchange rate is the fact that “we are halfway through the month and already there is no offer from those who make dollar “mash” during the first days”. That removes supply to that place, which would help to counteract the demand.
What’s Coming for the Blue Dollar
Looking ahead to the coming weeks, everything indicates that volatility will be felt in the illegal dollar market as the elections approach. However, Quintana does not rule out that, surely, “at some point, values will take a breather and will settle to a new level.”
And he explains that, although for some analysts the blue dollar should be still higher than the current price, this is not always logical. Thus, for him, what will push the illegal exchange market forward the most will be the propensity to dollarize capital as a cover for the electoral process.
Source: Ambito
I am a 24-year-old writer and journalist who has been working in the news industry for the past two years. I write primarily about market news, so if you’re looking for insights into what’s going on in the stock market or economic indicators, you’ve come to the right place. I also dabble in writing articles on lifestyle trends and pop culture news.
