Investors are moving towards the mid-term legislative election considered key for the ruling party, where half of the Chamber of Deputies and a third of the Senate will be renewed. If the result of the PASO is maintained, the ruling coalition would lose its majority in Congress to the opposition.
The attention of economic agents is also focused on the recent price controls to tame high inflationary pressure, which climbed to 3.5% in September, and exchange regulations, amid the firm fiscal deficit fueled by monetary issuance and a slow negotiation of debt with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
“Investors continue to be concerned about the political and economic uncertainty, both current and especially post 14-N (November 14), recognizing that after the elections it will be time to make important definitions. Among them are the strategy in the negotiations with the IMF, “said economist Gustavo Ber.
For its part, the consulting firm Delphos Investment estimated that “The new price freeze measures appear to have had a negative influence on inflationary expectations in the medium term and on the demand for pesos.”
Country risk and bonds
The Argentine Country Risk measured by JP.Morgan bank on Monday it scored its historical maximum level since the debt swap with private parties (September 2020), when it touched 1,683 basis points, although at the close it fell by 12 units, to 1,661 basis points.
This change in trend from the fact that sovereign bonds in dollars began to improve 0.4% on average, after operating down for most of a reduced session. The debt comes from accumulating a drop of 2.3% last week.
“In bonds there is another issue, which is that it is not yet clear if Argentina could return to the capital market, beyond a change of government. And here is the main question, given the possibility that we will have a new event of credit, which does not necessarily have to be a default, but a restructuring or something else “said Pedro Siaba Serrate, from Portfolio Personal Inversiones.
“As much as the context changes and is favorable, this weighs on the titles”, he claimed.
The indicator prepared by the JP.Morgan bank it pierced its previous ceiling of 1,669 points, reached at the end of last March, on Friday, climbing to 1,672 points.
For its part, dollar linked debt in pesos it was listed with most hikes, with the bullish leadership of the long section of the curve. At the same time, CER-adjusted securities were trading slightly downward.
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