The blue dollar seems determined not to stop its bullish raid this week and, at this time, the question for everyone in the City is what value would it have to be to be located in an equilibrium price and what is its ceiling, taking into account the inflationary context and the situation of the economy in general.
the analyst Salvador Di Stefanoone of the most recognized gurus of the market in recent times, answers this question and points out that, “according to our calculations, it would have to be between $450 and $470”.
Thus, it indicates that it is expected that the dollars will settle around these values in the coming weeks and considers that “the Treasury tender is key in this sense because it validates a certain rate level”, on the one hand, but, also, because the pesos that do not go towards the debt instruments go towards the dollar, above all, to the parallels.
And, on the other hand, he mentions that “what the Central Bank (BCRA) decides at its board meeting will be very important” as another key element. “As long as the rate continues without adjusting and maintains it around 78% per year, the alternative dollars will continue to gather around those equilibrium values,” says Di Stefano.
Inflation and the fixed term rate
Let’s remember that last week the inflation data for March and, as soon as the information was published, analysts in the City began to speculate about the imminent arrival of a rise in the yield of the traditional fixed term by the Central. Everything would indicate that the novelty would arrive this Thursday, but there are those who think that it might not happen or that, if it does, it would be lukewarm.
He also points out that “it must be taken into account that, when a gap of between 110% or 120% is reached, there is a take profit in the blue” and explains that, for that, it should come to between $460 and $480. “For this reason, we believe that these are the ceiling levels,” he says.
This is in line with the forecast of Latin Focuss, a report that brings together the opinion of 40 local and foreign banks and economic consultants, regarding the exchange rate, and which estimates that the official dollar will end at $363 at the end of December.
The maximum forecast for 2023 is one dollar to $513authored by the OJF consultancy, while the minimum price is $261, according to Torino Capital.
In this context, with an unfavorable international environment for shares, which fell this Wednesday, Di Stéfano believes that we believe there will be a significant setback there. The places to keep are the dollar tradable shares or the dollar bill.
Source: Ambito
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