Markets: how the loss of Alberto Fernández’s candidacy impacted stocks and bonds

He President Alberto Fernández will not stand for re-election in the next elections. After learning this news, within the sovereign debt in dollars, Global bonds closed positive but Bonares fell. For his part, the S&P Merval ended the week higher with energy stocks leading the way. ADRs, on the other hand, recorded majority of casualties.

“The global bonds they went from more to less, that is, at the opening of Wall Street, before it opens here, they traded with increases of 2% and 3% on averageand then finished with improvements of less than 1%a context of great volatility and uncertainty,” he analyzed with Ámbito, Diego Martinez BurzacoHead of Research & Strategy at Inviu.

“Behind it there is a real economic problem that has to do with inflation that accelerated in March, a drought that implied a downward revision again this week of the harvesttherefore fewer dollars ahead, and additionally a very bad fiscal data for Marchwhich made explicit the failure to meet the goal with the International Monetary Fund and opened another front of conflict,” he said about the economic context.

Therefore, move forward with great caution, “There is a lot of volatility and we will see if additional stabilization measures come.”

In the local stock market, the biggest rises, within the sovereign debt in dollars, were for Global 2035 (+8.3%), Global 2046 (+2.4%), and Global 2030 (+2.1%). The casualties, meanwhile, were led by the Bonar 2038 (-2.6%), and the Bonar 2035 (-2.1%). “The fall of the Bonares is a bit because of the legislation, and another because of this idea that it is the channel through which the Government tries, in one way or another, to establish a limit to the rise of Cash with liquidation and where there are also more position of local bondholders,” Burzaco added.

For their part, from PPI they explained: “Submerged in a delicate local macro and political context and a lot of uncertainty, added to an international framework that did not cooperate either, the Globals plummeted between 8.6% and 13.6% in the week. The sharp drop in Argentine debt was correlated with financial dollars (inverse of the peso), which woke up after their lethargy. The CCL Senebi shot up $45 or 11.2% from $403 to $448, the biggest weekly jump since Massa’s arrival at the ministry.”

Shares and ADRs

in the stock market, the S&P Merval rose 3.2% to 290,890.52 pointsafter scoring an intraday record high of 291,518.53 points, led by the trend in financial and energy stocks. The shares that rose the most were Aluar (+9.2%), BYMA (+8.6%), and Transportadora de Gas del Sur (+4.8%).

Fernández’s decision “may have a positive reading as long as it helps to reduce internal tensions within the ruling party and it is thought that it is more probable that the official candidate is not some extreme ‘Kirchnerista’,” said Roberto Geretto, an economist at Fundcorp, and added: “On the downside, becoming an ‘outgoing president’ so early can make it difficult to manage until the end of the term”.

For their part, Argentine stocks listed on Wall Street ended the day with the majority of losses. The main ones were: BBVA bank (-3.3%), Macro bank (-2.8%), and Pampa Energía (-2.5%). For its part, the New York Stock Exchange closed slightly higher. pending the results of the technology companies expected for next week and the subsequent meeting of the Federal Reserve (Fed, central bank) of the United States.