The porteña bag continues with uptrend this Monday encouraged by selective profit-taking for toppings, at a time when the local market is immersed in strong economic and political turbulence. Thus, the analyst Mariano Sardáns, from the firm FDI, points out that “today theWhat is driving it is the business sector“, who flee from the peso as a result of the strong depreciation of the national currency in recent days in the alternative exchange places.
Likewise, the market is looking for coverage against rising inflation and other economic doubts that are adding to political tensions ahead of this year’s presidential elections.
“The key this week will be the evolution of the exchange market, with the expectation that the BCRA recovers reserves with greater dynamism from the liquidation of agriculture and higher stocks, while the Treasury will have a demanding test when facing maturities for 985,000 million pesos,” said clearing and settlement agent Cohen.
S&P Merval and ADRs
In this context, the local stock market rises and the leading market index, the S&P Merval, gains 0.3%, to 291,775.80 pointsafter scoring in the first deals a record level of 296,767.68 units.
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Powerful imbalances in public accounts, scarce reserves in the central bank (BCRA), projected inflation above 100% and political tensions in the ruling party and the opposition Looking ahead to this year’s presidential elections, they create a tense and uncertain climate in the financial market.
“The search for coverage continues in the face of the uncertain political and economic landscape, which further complicates managing the challenges in this transition stage,” said economist Gustavo Ber. And he assured that the liquidations of the “agricultural dollar” are expected to pick up speed and some additional understanding with the IMFseeking to decompress exchange rate tensions within a scenario of acceleration of the economy’s nominality, since otherwise more exchange restrictions would continue to be added.
Meanwhile, the agro-export complex totaled income last week for some 634.5 million dollars, of which the BCRA took 210 million dollars for its reserves thanks to the application of a special exchange rate for exporters called ‘soybean dollar 3’ and, last week, President Alberto Fernández said that he will not seek re-election, a decision that was demanded by the “kirchnerista” sector, the wing of the Peronism led by Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.
Argentine papers listed on Wall Street operate mixed. The increases of up to 3.2% are led by Edenor, Transportadora Gas del Sur (2.6%) and Pampa Energía (1.4%). The decreases belong to Despegar (-2.2%), Mercado Libre (-1.5%) and Irsa (-1.4%).
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“Fernández’s resignation does not change the substance of the matter and there are many doubts that enough agricultural dollars will enter“said the economist Camilo Tiscornia and stated that” the scenario is very volatile.
For his part, former President Mauricio Macri, one of the leaders of the opposition coalition Together for Change, will not run for president in the elections either.
Thus, the analyst Salvador Vitelli indicates that “what is happening is a search for coverage against rumors and possible news that may come in the exchange market and so the ‘blue’ is taking a little note, also the MEP and the CCL They’re trying to protect themselves.” And he assures that “the Argentine market in the face of uncertainty prefers certainty and that refuge is provided by the dollar.”
Bonds and country risk
Sovereign bonds in the over-the-counter market earn 0.3% on average, influenced by the trend of dollarized issues, where the Global 2030 bond stands out with an improvement of 3.5%. Country risk, for its part, rose 0.6% to 2,639 basis points.
Source: Ambito
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