The blue dollar rises firmly, but calmly: what to expect in the short term?

The blue dollar has been rising “by drops” in recent days. A daily peso climbed its price in the last four days and it went from being worth $468 to $472 in that period, reaching a new maximum price. However, economist Christian Buteler points to Ambit that “it is not worrisome that the dollar moves like this, little by little, for a few days.” And it is that it is a constant but moderate rise, in a context in which the currency run that was recently seen is controlled for the moment, but how can the trend of the illegal dollar continue throughout this fifth month of the year? ?

For Gustavo Quintana, from PR Operadores de Cambio, what happens is that “the blue dollar market it tends to generate higher and higher floors, without experiencing very pronounced falls” and adds that the restrictions to access other alternative dollars do not help the blue exhibit more pronounced falls.

It also considers that price difference between the MEP dollar and the blue It is also helping to control the upward trend of the latter, since, through what is known as “purée” (buying MEP and selling in the blue) profits are generated and that is increasing the supply of dollars in the informal market.

The latest maneuvers to stop the dollar

On the other hand, “through intervention in the stock market dollarsthe Government has managed to curb part of the demand that turned to the blue”, as pointed out by the economist of Epyca Consultores Joel Lupieri when explaining what elements led to the current greater exchange rate calm.

And it is that, as explained by Sergio González, Head of Asset Management at Cohen Aliados Financieros, “what the National Securities Commission (CNV) did is prohibit borrowing in the market through stock market guarantees to prevent that capital from going to the purchase of dollars.” And it is that these pesos work as fuel to boost financial exchange rates. So, González indicates that what he sought was to avoid this maneuver by the operators.

To this strategy, which was combined with the interventions that the Central Bank (BCRA) has been carrying out in the stock market dollars, via the purchase of bonds, is added, according to Lupieri, the fact that, in recent weeks, the monetary regulator the rate of devaluation of the peso has slowed down, and, with that, “part of the expectations that put upward pressure on the parallel dollar have receded.” However, he warns that the Government has not been able to change the underlying issues that concern the bulk of the population, such as inflation.

Inflation: a key variable for the blue dollar

So, a preponderant data that will mark the rhythm of the evolution of the blue dollar will be the inflation of Aprilwhich will be known at the end of this week, and which, according to his vision, “could once again upset the investor mood.”

And it is that, as Buteler indicates, it must be taken into account that the rest of the economy prices They rise at a rate of between 7% and 8% per month and he points out that the dollar has to continue, somehow, that trend. “In fact, the MEP and the CCL are going to start going up as well because the government cannot keep them completely still. They have to evolve close to the rate of inflation ”, he anticipates.

Consequently, he considers that “the Dolar blue it may at some point have some type of tranquility to be equated with the other parallel dollars as well”, but, he anticipates that the trend of the dollar is upward, nominally speaking, although “the Government seeks to avoid that this happens with abrupt jumps because that It would negatively affect the economy.

What’s coming for the blue in May

In a similar sense, Quintana points out, when he points out that “dollarization trend persists” and expects that, as electoral times shorten, the buying pressure will increase. “We will see what happens from the second semester of the year, when the issue of candidacies presents a clearer electoral panorama”, she anticipates.

Ultimately, for now the illegal dollar market is more balanced than a few weeks ago, helped by the prospect of the evolution of the official dollar, the intervention mechanisms that the Government implemented in the other parallel markets and the profit that the exchange rate gap between the different markets allows.

If there are no large movements and the BCRA manages to continue buying some dollars, or at least it does not lose many, May could continue with a blue dollar with movements, but without major shocks and its price would fluctuate between $465 and $480. But the situation could get complicated towards the beginning of the next semester.