New measures for financial dollars: what does the market expect with the blue?

The National Securities Commission (CNV) Once again it surprised the market by establishing a new regulation when accessing financial dollars. This time, it established the modification of the purchase-sale of sovereign bonds denominated and payable in dollars through which the MEP dollar and the CCL are accessed. In turn, it established a 15-day limitation on the sale of foreign currency obtained, to avoid arbitration with other dollarized assets.

The objective, as established by the General Resolution 962/23 published today in the Official bulletin, it is to dismantle the loop that generated an extraordinary return of 2% and thus “achieve a greater availability of instruments to stabilize the markets” by reducing the volatility of financial variables. In this context, economists affirm that it is a short-term measure and that it could have an impact on the price of the blue.

This is one more announcement in the midst of the multiple interventions that the Central Bank maintains to contain financial dollars after the sharp jumps that the currency had at the end of April. In this way, the CCL and MEP stay away from the $500 ceiling.

According to market estimates, the Central spent at least US$800 million to contain the MEP and the CCL. Since then, the blue has maintained greater volatility for some days, but to the extent that the “free” dollars remained stable, the rises could be moderated.

A strategy that is far from free and, according to economists, in the long term may generate greater problems in terms of the firepower of the monetary authority as we approach the electoral period.

the economist Natalia Motyl, in dialogue with Ambit affirmed that the disarmament of the curl aims at “lower the price of the blue”.

“With the MEP/LEDES loop, investors achieved a profit of up to 2% in two days. Now, making this financial operation impossible will encourage them to buy MEP or CCL, take out those dollars and sell them in the caves to obtain a profit of up to 6% in a single day. Therefore, as there is a greater supply of dollars in the parallel dollar market, the price should drop or at least reduce the distance with the blue”. It is worth remembering that the blue is close to its nominal record above $490 and in recent days it has advanced $6. It is added to the $12 you advanced the previous week.

“All these days the government tried to intervene in financial dollars to have an impact on the blue, but these financial operations ended up widening the difference between it and the MEP/CCL. On the other hand, it is evident that the government is trying to reduce speculative activities and stabilize the markets that today are already discounting an exchange rate correction after the elections. It serves to give greater predictability today but it does not solve the fundamental problem that depends today, entirely, on whether you get enough dollars to continue keeping the markets calm“said the economist.

What changes will investors see?

In this regard, the analyst Federico Glustein, added his vision with the measure: “I consider that for those who operate MEP and CCL for sovereigns there are no modifications, so a large number of agents will not be affected. However, for those who made MEP and those dollars against D or ledes, an operation that was legal and gave a very good return due to arbitration hits hard, more to get currency and 20%. It is a measure that at first glance should not affect the parallel prices because the operators themselves maintained that it had a limit, although it is likely that there may be a small doubt at the beginning of the operation since it has been applied since this morning and systems must be updated ” .