At the macroeconomic level, the latest survey carried out by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) showed an expectation of growth for this year that will reach 7.6% of GDP, in accordance with the estimates made by the World Bank, which also showed growth of around 2.6% by 2022. Although, it should be noted that we are coming from 2020 with a sharp decline.
Regarding inflation, September presented negative data again with a rise in the CPI of around 3.5%, compared to an increase of 2.5% in the previous month, leaving a year-on-year inflation of 52.5%, much lower above what the market expected. Food, clothing and health led the way in a price hike that does not appear to be easing, despite the government’s attempts to freeze and control gondola prices.
The exchange market, for its part, is a reflection of uncertainty. With a free dollar exceeding $ 200 for the Cash with Settlement segment, it once again left the gap close to 100%.
Market expectations reflected in the Matba Rofex futures market they show an official dollar around $ 108. Despite being fully intervened, it slightly exceeds the 50% implicit rate, that is, the probability of annual devaluation that the market expects for the next few months.
The reversal in the downward trend of inflation, which was supported by a pegged exchange rate and strict price control, is viewed with concern, and which, despite this, shows no signs of decline in the short term. Added to that, the impact of the sale of debt to the BCRA remains unknown after the general elections.
As for the dollar, the increase in the gap keeps devaluation expectations high, obviously discouraging the liquidation of positions in dollars, reducing short-term growth.
With this scenario of high uncertainty, from TSA Stock Exchange We recommend different types of portfolios in relation to risk aversion, based on the absolute collection for the Monday after the elections.
For those risk averse investors, we recommend positioning yourself 80% dollar bill, accessing the exchange rate Dollar Bolsa or MEP, which is located on average in $185 and allows you to buy an unlimited amount, unlike the saving dollar. The remaining 20%, we recommend placements in negotiable obligations in dollars with maturities of less than 12 months, that pay a yield of around 8% per year in foreign currency. We emphasize that, despite the macroeconomic scenario described above, we still welcome short-term placements in Argentine companies that maintain good projections and stable ratios.
On medium risk portfolios, we recommend a 25% position in dollars, 30% in negotiable obligations in dollars, 30% in CEDEARs and 15% in sovereign bonds in dollars. Regarding CEDEARs, our portfolio is diversified between raw materials, technology, health and energy, where we still see opportunities even though the market is close to all-time highs. With parities of 35%, the bet on sovereign bonds is purely speculative. Nominally, Argentine bonds are at ridiculous prices, but when one analyzes the macroeconomic scenario, we understand that large investors are not yet entering the Argentine market.
Finally, for the high risk portfolio We position ourselves 30% in CEDEARs, 20% in Argentine shares of the leading panel, 20% in negotiable obligations, 20% in sovereign bonds and 10% in CER-adjustable bills, that is, with inflationary coverage. The bet for this portfolio is a bull market in the days before the elections, which, if favorable for the market, could continue in the short term, with leading stocks that are worth less than a dollar and are still close to minimums.
For now, since TSA Stock Exchange we do not recommend short-term placements in pesos. With negative real rates and a dollar pressing, we are inclined to maintain short-term dollarized positions, or at least hedged, which can be obtained through the futures market.
Financial advisor to TSA Bursátil.
Source From: Ambito
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