Blue dollar, falling: what elements affect this trend and how it will continue

The blue dollar comes with downward trend for three days and is located at $484, after having been close to its maximum value (which was $495 in April) just a week ago. Analysts ask what reasons are causing this situation of calm in the illegal currency market and detect some seasonal elements and other short-term ones.

The seasonal issue: the Christmas bonus

It happens that, although the director of Analytica Caludio Caprarulo explains that “it still cannot be said that the calm in the price of Dolar blue because it is a short period”, there is a key element to take into account and that is that, usually, it has a drop due to seasonal reasons since companies usually sell dollars in parallel markets (both financial and blue) to pay bonuses, the complementary annual salary, which is paid at this time of the year.

Thus, as Gustavo Quintana, from PR Operadores de Cambio, points out, “basically, there are weight needssomething common in the first half of June because you have to pay bonuses and, in some cases, winter holidays are also anticipated.

The purée, another key variable

Also, many take advantage the gap between the MEP dollar and the blue to make the famous “purée”, which is the possibility of taking advantage of the profit that can be achieved with that price difference between the two exchange rates.

While that margin is slim at just $10 right now, some savers may be taking advantage of the opportunity by buying MEP and selling in the blue, leaving a profit of about $7.

Also, a reason that and, of course, for now, less stress on the market. “The agreements with China, the BRICs and the process of accumulation of reserves that was achieved with the soybean dollar 3 take some pressure off the reserves and expectations have calmed down a bit,” explains economist Federico Glustein.

An improvement in expectations

Although, he considers thatthe swap does not imply a waterfall of dollars” and He warns that Argentina still has a very significant dollar deficit, so these developments did not have an immediate effect on the blue, but yes, perhaps they improve somewhat in terms of expectations.

On the other hand, it does not rule out that the improvement in the dynamics seen in local bonds and stocks, with the consequent recovery of the S&P Merval, may be putting a brake on the dollarization trend of some investors, which is reflected in the parallel exchange rate.

However, for the director of CyT Asesores Económicos, Camilo Tiscornia, this calm and drop in the blue “is about something temporary”, possibly driven by seasonal variables and the tail of the soybean dollar 3. For him, “the lack of dollars is felt in the long run” and warns that there are maturities of debts that the Government will have to face shortly. Thus, he considers that “it does not seem to be a sustainable situation, but something transitory.”

What’s Coming for the Blue Dollar

In the same sense, Quintana warns that the second half of June will surely present another panorama because, with the money from the bonus in their pocket, many savers tend to go towards the blue dollar and it is a time of the month when that exchange rate usually tends to rise.

Thus, as Glustein points out, everything would indicate that “we have to wait and see what happens closer to the primary elections,” which are in two months. He warns that we may see an acceleration in the price of the blue dollar closer to that date, although he acknowledges that, for the moment, there is still no strong exchange rate tension in the markets and, for example, “the future dollar, which serves As a thermometer of what the market sees ahead, it is calm for the moment ”.

However, a variable that he mentions as risky is the fact that hehe problems that affect the dynamics of parallels are usually still very presentespecially the shortage of dollars and that suggests a possible upward trend forward.

Likewise, it will be key how you carry the Central Bank (BCRA) the evolution of the official exchange rate. The monetary regulator has been accelerating the rate of daily depreciation of the peso with the intention of bringing it closer to inflation in recent times and this is a variable that affects the dynamics of the parallels also due to the effect of the appreciation expectation that the market it is measuring and forecasting for the official dollar.