Faced with this scenario, having uninvested pesos results in a significant loss of purchasing power. In this sense, they begin to evaluate options and the best-known foreign currencies, which are the euro and the dollarare two analyzed options, but in recent times, the yuan. Should you invest in that currency? What is the best alternative today?
Why not invest in yuan
following the agreement exchange with China and the news that bilateral trade will be carried out in yuan, without the need to use the dollar, the Chinese currency took a central role in the economic scene local. Some analysts even qualified the possibility of “yuanize“The Argentine economy as an alternative to the proposal to dollarize it, what political references have been proposed as a solution to inflation and the devaluation of the peso.
Attention around the yuan led some savers to consider it as a possible “currency of the future”. In turn, the strength of the Chinese economy makes the yuan be perceived as an option investment to protect savings of domestic volatility.
However, at present, this No is a viable option for local savers. As he explained to Ámbito Gustavo Quintana, from PR Operadores de Cambio, “the yuan is not quoted in the local market.” Access to this currency is limited to payment operations for imports from China through the Central Bank (BCRA) through the swap. Therefore, it is not a useful currency to save or support investments in the country.
In this sense, the economist Frederick Glustein He emphasized that one of the fundamental functions of a currency is its ability to be used in transactions. And he warned that, in Argentina this condition is not yet met for the yuansince there is no significant supply of that currency and, if there is, it would be “limited” at this time.
Likewise, the yuan has been suffering a devaluation process in the last timewhich makes it unattractive and the analysts consulted consider that, on the other hand, saving andIn that currency it would be very risky due to its limited acceptance.at a global level. “Besides, with the communist government of Chinathe rules are not clear and that generates uncertainty”, they pointed out to this outlet from the Bull Market Broker Research team.
Investments in euros: a limited market
On the other hand, in reference to the euro, the ideal financial adviser in the capital market Gaston Lentini explain what there are more banks available to operate with dollars than with the European currency. “The euro has fewer official banking options to operate with,” he says. And he explains that only a few banks allow you to open an account in euros.
but they do exist different unregulated exchange houses, known as “caves” that operate it with euros and dollars. Others do not offer this possibility, although they do allow opening accounts in dollars and, in case of carrying out transactions in euros, it is necessary to carry out the conversion in a mandatory way when making the movement.
In the words of Lentini, the euro market is considerably “smaller” Compared to the dollar market, this is because most of the transactions are focused on the US currency, while the euro is not as relevant. Then, he clarifies that, “sIf someone wants to buy euros, they will find less availability and fewer places to buy them”.
Likewise, the euro market is more limited in terms of supply and demand, but it is important to note that it is subject to to current legal regulations for transactions in foreign currencyso buying them on the official market is as difficult as in the case of the dollar.
Access to euros is very limited. Very few people choose the Eurozone currency as a savings instrument. However, from the local market There are some options to access said ticket.
Dollar or euro before yuan and investments before banknotes
Thus, analysts agree that if someone seeks to resort to a foreign currency such as the yuan, the euro or the dollar, the choice depends on several factors. In general, the US dollar is considered a more stable and widely accepted option globally and locally.
However, it is also known that, tBoth the euro and the dollar in banknotes are subject to the fluctuations of local economies and they are devalued in inflationary contexts such as the current one. Therefore, analysts consider that it is best to invest in cdollarized arteries
It is important to follow expert recommendations when making investment decisions, especially in a volatile market like the dollar in Argentina. In this sense, some analysts offer key points to take into account both in relation to the dollar and to the bonus:
First of all, it should be remembered that the REM analysts adjusted their projections for the wholesale nominal exchange rate upwards. They estimate that, by December 2023, the exchange rate will reach $408.68, which represents an increase of 136.4% compared to the end of 2022. This information is relevant to assess the prospects of the dollar and consider its impact on financial decisions.
Savings dollar and blue dollar: they are not always options
The restrictions imposed by the exchange stocks generate more and more obstacles for those who wish to acquire dollars for savings. Despite this situation,Those who still have access to those of US$200 could consider using part of their Christmas bonus to make this purchase.
Ignacio ZorzoliFinance Director of the Center for Economic Studies Argentina XXI, highlights the profitability of this option, since, Although the official exchange rate has risen, the value of the savings dollar remains lower than that of the blue dollar.
However, due to the restrictions and the limited space of $200, it is likely that many workers orpten to resort to the parallel marketknown as the blue dollar, which is stable these days and has a trading value of $485 per dollar.
Bonds: a way to hedge against inflation
For short-term investments, Maximiliano Donzellihead of Research at IOL investoronline, recommends the Government bond T2X3which adjusts its capital by the CER, providing inflation protection. Maturing in August 2023, this bond has considerable volume and an IRR of ERC+0.6%. “In a scenario of rising inflation, this bond offers coverage,” said the analyst.
For long-term investments, the DICP national government bond is a suitable option. Like the previous one, it adjusts its capital by the CER and matures in 2033. It offers semi-annual coupons at an annual rate of 5.83% and capital amortization starting in June 2024. Currently, it presents an annual yield of CER+14.0%.
tradable options
For those interested in protecting their dollar savings for the long term, the Negotiable Obligations in US currency are recommended. In a challenging context and electoral uncertainty, “investing in instruments that adjust for the variation in the dollar offers valuable coverage”, they maintain from IOL. So far this year, the US currency it has appreciated more than 40.6% against the Argentine pesoTherefore, negotiable obligations, which also generate passive income, are an effective way to boost savings.
The Negotiable Obligations They are bonds issued by private companies backed by their assets and income. They are similar to sovereign bonds, but issued by reputable private companies.
In terms of investing, Donzelli suggests having exposure to some notes for those interested in low-risk fixed income options. “Our portfolio of Negotiable Obligations Recommended includes 47% in the YPF Foreign Law BO (YMCHO), 27% in the Cresud Local Law BO (CS38O) and 26% in the IRSA 2028 BO (IRCFO)”, he maintains.
This portfolio offers an opportunity to dollarize investments in a simple way and has an average annual return (IRR) of 7.2% and an adjusted maturity of 2.3 years. It is ideal for those who want protect your dollar savings and obtain a passive income, with a minimum investment of ARS $20,000.
Source: Ambito
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