Behind the inflation data for May, which stood at 7.8%, this Thursday, the board of the Central Bank (BCRA) resolved not to modify the rate of return of the traditional fixed term. Until now, the high indices had been causing the monetary regulator to run back to inflation up to now (balding it or losing slightly) for more than The rate had been adjusting strongly in recent timesbut this time, the rise in prices showed a slight deceleration and the question is how the fixed-term yield was compared to inflation.
Fixed term: how it was compared to inflation
As he explained to Ambit the economist Federico Glustein, not raising rates that it is “a response to the market and is to equate the effective annual yield with annualized inflation: if 145% to 150% inflation is expected in the year, the TEA must be located in those profiles, at 97% TNA, 154.9% TEA and 8% TEM”.
Thus, in response to the question of whether the fixed term now beats inflation, Glustein points out that the effective monthly rate (TEM), which is what the saver looks at when he decides to renew his investment every 30 days, is slightly above the inflation of the previous month and the same happens with the effective annual return (8% against 7.8% of the CPI).
Thus, with the data May inflation at 7.8%, the monthly yield of the fixed term it became real positive with respect to the price evolution data, as required by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and as the market has been constantly demanding from the BCRA. “After the price evolution data, from the point of view of inflation, the BCRA I would no longer need to raise the rate this month because, now, it was slightly above that index (0.2 percentage points)”, explains Santiago Manoukian, Ecolatina economist.
Likewise, for June, expectations are positive and it is expected that there could be a slowdown in the CPI again, with chances of a slight decrease, so that the TEA could be equal to the expected year-on-year.
Consequently, Eco Go economist Sebastián Menescaldi anticipates that, if there is an index also around these levels, it would not have to touch the fixed term rate in July either, which “could contribute to a process of anchoring expectations for the future.”
Source: Ambito
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