Banks rise, so far this year, up to 167%, while energy companies advance up to 157%, in the leading panel. In 2022, however, the latter excelled but the banks, with few exceptions, failed to overcome inflation. Taking into account these premises: What sector has the most potential for growth in the second half of the year?
But before revealing it, it is important to note that, in terms of indices, the S&P Merval registers a strong advance of 109.5% so far in 2023 in pesos and 44.5% in dollars au$s848.32.
About, Mauro Mazza, Head of Research at Bull Marketin dialogue with Ambit expressed: “The foreign market that explains almost 65% of the rise, and the rest that is explained by the local market. It must be borne in mind that everything that is considered frontier markets rose a lot globally. Specifically in the CCC debt, where Argentina is, we have seen strong increases, there we have markets like Ukraine, Argentina, El Salvador and Ecuador”.
Particularly, regarding the sectors, he mentioned that “Banks were the ones that rose the most in this stage. It is a market of rotations and with swing versus the index (a lot of elasticity with respect to the Merval benchmark). First the oil companies advanced, then the energy and services companies, after them the companies of the general panel and now it is finally the turn of the banks“.
Thus, so far this year, the greatest advances in the leading panel are: Grupo Financiero Galicia (+166.9%), Edenor (+156.9%), YPF (+146.4%), Banco Macro (+128.8%), BBVA bank (+131.8%), Banco Supervielle (+108.7%), and Pampa Energía (+101.6%).
“We are not comfortable with a Merval of 800 points in dollars, although it is healthy that the bonds have finally reacted, valuationally we are becoming expensiveand although the market can bear much more irrationality, the risk/reward trade off has fallen substantially” confided Mazza and added: “In banks For example, we are with classic efficiency, profitability and book value indices that are worse than Braziland with 65% below the prices of January 2018. We were expensive with half the value of January of that year.”
For his part, Juan Jose Vazquez de Cohenin dialogue with this medium, assured that “banks are at challenging levels as to think of higher upside. In terms of Price/Book value GGAL quotes 1.74 and BMA 1.33; for country risk levels of 2,353 points, it looks considerable.” “The relationship between the position with the Public Sector / Net Equity of private banks is 1.78 times,” she exemplified.
Regarding whether the energy companies have the potential to rise, Vázquez opined: “You have to see each case in particular, bets on companies linked to Vaca Muerta that do not trade at high ratios seem interesting to me.”
“In energy we prefer the classic, Pampa Energy and Central Port. Holding companies, diversified businesses, low or zero level of indebtedness and with a clear political profile whoever wins and We are not comfortable with transporters and distributors at these prices”said Mazza and closed: “At this moment we don’t see much value, just a tide of irrationality, local part foreign part, which can continue but at the risk that the adjustment generates significant capital losses. Let another win, it’s time to protect profits now that there is still demand.”
How each sector fared in 2022
The best companies in the local market during 2022 were Transportadora Gas del Sur, which registered a resounding rise of 347.9%, followed by the oil company YPF with a rise of 304.3%, while the podium was closed by Transportadora Gas del Norte, with a growth of 282.5%. Very close to them, appeared the electric Transener (+241%); Commercial Company of Silver (+237.3%); and Central Puerto (+232%).
The other side of the energy sector were the banks, which in certain cases could not overcome inflation, with few exceptions, such as Grupo Financiero Valores, which reaped an increase of 163.7%.
Source: Ambito
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