Yes ok Cristina Fernández de Kirchner has not yet ruled on the matterthe “Kirchnerista wing” ruling party, through Unión Por la Patria, defined this Thursday the formula that it will present for the primary elections to be held in August and elected Edward Wado de Pedro as his pre-candidate for president already John Manzur, as his vice. The market begins to evaluate the electoral scenario and makes its bets and evaluations in this regard.
One of the elements implied by the presentation of this formula is the fact that the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, will not be a candidate for the moment and, according to the economist Federico Glustein, “this will allow the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to be offered some predictability in the sense that it will not mix the electoral issue in the negotiation of the new agreement.” Consequently, according to his vision, it is positive for the local economy that it continues and that the current conditions are not broken.
On the other hand, as regards the formula, which would be confirmed in itself, he believes that “He has a leg in strong agriculture, which Manzur would contribute, and which could give him some strengthbut, in turn, they are two members of the cabinet that intervened strongly in the foreign exchange market”, which is why he considers that, in that sense, it is negative news for the market.
And, along the same lines, Andrés Reschini, an analyst at F2 Soluciones Financieras, believes, for his part, that It does not seem to be a duo that is going to do sympathy for itself to the market. However, he considers that “we have to see if he has a chance.”
A formula with limited prospects, according to the City
The specifics so far, as described by the economist Joel Lupieri from Epyca Consultores, is that “Argentine values are trending upwards” and he expects this announcement to have a marginal impact, as a result of the fact that the markets were already showing favorable dynamics for the local titles.
Although this Thursday stock prices fall a bit while bonds risethe economist Salvador Vitelli explains that it is due to the fact that the latter were delayed and not to the announcement of the ruling party and considers that “what we are seeing is part of the electoral trade” more than anything and goes beyond the formula that has been presented.
“Yeah the market rules out that there will be an alternation in the government, that is what must be discounted regardless of who the candidates are”, anticipates Vitelli. To which the economist Christian Buteler adds that the market views positively the fact that this government ends on December 10. He points out that a bullish rally has been taking place for a long time and assesses that this De Pedro-Manzur formula “is not competitive”, so the impact on the bonds would be positive, according to his vision, because it indicates that there could be alternation in the power.
What is coming and the absence of Cristina
Lupieri points out, for his part, that “Cristina Fernández is not there, nor are they candidates who have so much of their own traction”, so he considers that stock and bond buyers are seeing a likely loser ruling party ahead of the next elections.
However, not everything is said yet. And Glustein warns that this is going to be seen closer to the primary elections (PASO). He considers that, if there is a chance of winning in the general, he would not be a potential threat to a change of scenery in the short term, since the polls gave De Pedro very low as a candidate.
In this sense, he anticipates that the path to the PASO will be conflictive, with daily sales by the Central Bank (BCRA) in the MULC, the MEP dollar intervened and parallels to the rise, with a monthly depreciation that would be greater than 10% despite the slight inflationary deceleration.
Source: Ambito
I am a 24-year-old writer and journalist who has been working in the news industry for the past two years. I write primarily about market news, so if you’re looking for insights into what’s going on in the stock market or economic indicators, you’ve come to the right place. I also dabble in writing articles on lifestyle trends and pop culture news.
