The S&P Merval jumped 25% in June due to strong bets on the electoral trade

During June, dollar bonds registered the highest monthly increase since the 2020 swap. For its part, the S&P Merval up almost 25% and the shares of the leading panel shot up to almost 70%, with Edenor and the financial papers at the head. In the sixth month of the year The magnifying glass was placed on the definitions of the presidential candidates.

The index measured by JP Morgan, the country risk, fell 20.9%, the largest decline since September 2020. Thus, the sovereign debt in dollars registered increases of up to 35.2% by Bonar 2030. Closely followed by: he Bonar 2029 (+32.5%), Bonar 2035 (+31.9%), and Global 2041 (+28.6%). These increases were the most important since these assets were created.

“Dollar-denominated bonds ended with strong rises in pesos and also in parities, throughout the entire yield curve, with rises that averaged almost 40%,” reported tavelli and expanded: “The titles in CER-adjusted pesos once again improving thanks to the inflation data. Long duals end with raises of up to more than 13%. UvPs in dollars were bullish with increases of up to 150% in NY law“.

For his part, Maximiliano Donzelli, Head of Research at IOL investoronlineassured that “it is a logical rebound, in a context in which fixed income assets were in arrears, compared to the optimism seen in equity assets in recent months.”

Regarding equities, the S&P Merval registered a rise of 24.6% in June to reach the level of 426,280.97 units. On the other hand, if the performance of the Merval is taken into account by measuring its variation with respect to the dollar counted with settlement (CCL), rose 19.8% in June, closing the month at 832.51 points.

So, in the leading panel, the biggest increase was for Edenor (+68.6%). After the strong rise of the electric power company, a trade in the banking sector was evidenced: Macro bank (+66.7%), Grupo Financiero Galicia (+52.1%), and Supervielle bank (+51.8%). “The banking sector dominated the monthly ranking after a first boost from the purchase of Itaú by Banco Macro,” explained Tavelli and about Edenor expanded that it was due to speculation about the candidacies.

“In all cases, the shares of these companies have shown strength despite the political and economic noise, being that 16 shares of the 21 that make up the Merval have beaten the rise of the MEP dollar in the month of June, which was 3.4%”, expanded Maximiliano Donzelli.

To its turn, Gustavo Neffa, director of Research for Tradersin dialogue with Ambit He maintained that it was a month where the electoral trade was activated and highlighted the performance of financial papers. “The good performance of the banks only began at the end of 2022, beginning of 2023, but it was erratic because they were the last to arrive at the party,” he said.

“Have a Merval that has been rising more than 400% since July of last year and this year it appreciated more than 110%. The banking sector was the last and liquid to participate in this rally and it did so even though fundamentals obviously do not enable this rally“Neffa expanded.

Regarding the analysis of the sector, he assured that the banks continue to have the same problems that they had at the end of last year. “They have an excessively concentrated portfolio in public risk, some entities above 60%among the leliqs, the passes, the bonds, the letters in the portfolio that the National Government owes them, either to the Central Bank or the Treasury”.