dollar bonds they continue to party in the market and the Bonar 2030 or AL30D touches a new intraday symbolic value. Stocks had an excellent bullish performance in June and ended up being one of the best performing instruments on the market. But before a new month, investors maintain an optimistic spirit because the AL30 touches US$30, the highest since last February 2 and for those who bought 2 months ago, profitability was greater than 40% in dollars.
In June, the debt exchange bonds that were listed in 2020 rose from 21% to 30% in June to reach an average of US$32, the highest since last February. The bonds that rose the most in the last month, around 30% in dollars, are the Bonar 2029 (AL29), 2030 (AL30) and 2035 (AL35), bonds with shorter-term Argentine law, which, moreover, were the ones that were lagging the most with respect to bonds with foreign law, the Globals, listed on Wall Street. Of the latter, the referential Global 2030 (GD30) gained 25% in June.
According to a recent PPI report, this good performance of hard dollar debt has a favorable international climate, but the marked reaction is explained “virtually entirely due to local factors.”
In this sense, they point out that there is no greater reason in macroeconomics that leads to this good performance except electoral trade. “As we pointed out, the market sees Massa as the “market friendly” figure within the ruling party. In addition, his candidacy implies that he will continue at the helm of the Ministry of Economy. In turn, a key contribution to the rally of Argentine assets is that Sergio Massa would have reached an agreement with the Fund, which would imply a “purchase of time” until the PASO elections”.
“A fundamental point to follow this week is the definition of the negotiation of the economic team of Sergio Massa and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). On the one hand, the rumors point to greater flexibility and, on the other, to a new agreement deeper and with a long-term sustainable solution”, they add.
Another point to highlight for the advance of the bonds is that on July 9 coupons of sovereign bonds that add up to around US$1,000 million expire. “Faced with a possible delay in the approval of this outcome, the government could have to face this expiration with its own reserves.”
Leonardo Svirsky, market operator, pointed out to Ámbito: “although the income is low because the coupons are as little as 1% in some bonds, everyone now pays coupons. The ALs and the DGs and in the last three months there has been a strong motivation for local and foreign purchases, in fact, that’s why I raise it. I think it may have a little more room if the IMF thing is fixed and a little expectation of the elections if the opposition wins”.
In the case of sovereign bonds, even in the face of a scenario of a new restructuring in 2024, current prices feed speculative demand to obtain income in dollars. With an average price of US$32 dollars, if one takes into account that the exchange bonds went public in September 2020 for around US$50, even a strong haircut of 25% or 30% with a new restructuring would validate higher prices. to the current ones.
Source: Ambito
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