Blue dollar one step away from $500: does a new rally start or will it remain calm until PASS?

Natalia Motyleconomist and CEO of NM consultancyin dialogue with Ambit, He opined that the illegal ticket “always keeps pace with inflation, so, being a free market, it will always end up correcting.” “It remained calm because the effective monthly rate was below the monthly inflation data for the last month and that expected for the month of July. In addition, the interventions in financial dollars greatly benefited the calm in the markets,” he added.

For Mityl, however, it is to be expected that it will push upwards so much again, “by the lack of availability of dollars to continue delaying the official TC cI like the electoral climate that anticipates a worsening of the crisis of confidence with an acceleration of portfolio dollarization”. For the economist, If we compare with the expected annual inflation, the blue dollar should be close to $800. “So there will be short-term pressure to exceed $600 in the next two months“, said.

Lastly, he stressed that “the more restrictive monetary policy from the main central banks of the world will also put pressure on the value of local assetsincluding emerging currencies. So the upward pressures increase during the second half.”

Blue dollar close to $500: is it expensive or cheap?

Christian Buteler, financial analyst and investorin dialogue with AmbitHe said: “It’s been a while since the dollar stopped being cheap. However It is logical than the dollar do not stand still in a context of inflation of 7%, as we are going to have this month is over. I think it is healthier to have small increases every week and not suddenly those abrupt jumps as we had in April that in one week rose 20%“.

In this regard, he opined that when the blue dollar follows the price trend there is an equilibrium. What happens, he explained, is that “in the face of sudden jumps, what normally happens a rapid transfer to price that accelerates inflation and the uncertainty. It generates that people go to withdraw deposits from banks, so it is preferable that it go up gradually. In this regard, he indicated that it is likely that in the month of July it will exceed $500.

“It seems to me that it will be something totally natural seeing the dynamics of the rest of the prices of the Economy; the dollar does not allow one more price to be made. So if all prices move, it is logical that this one also and it is preferable that it do so gradually and not from one day to the next or from one week to the next because of the consequences that I bring”, closed Christian Butler.

Blue dollar close to $500: will the agreement with the IMF influence its price?

The Economist Delphos Investments boss Jorge Neyro, also in dialogue with this medium, analyzed what happened with the parallel ticket. “The blue gap with the wholesaler is a little below 90%, that is more or less reasonable with the expectations that there are about the economy in the short term”, he said and added: “The market discounts that there will be some agreement with the fundthat the disbursements will end up arriving and that the government could reach the STEP in a more or less elegant way”.

For what follows, Neyro opined: “Then we have to see what happens after the STEP and what evaluation the market makes of the electoral results but today the blue dollar is more or less at a reasonable level for the current situation. Later, at some point, it will move because all the prices of the economy move because there is inflation and the blue will not be behind in nominal terms”. “We will have to wait and see what happens with the electoral news and with the IMF. If market expectations were right, he’ll probably stay calm, but that’s not necessarily a sure thing.“Neyro closed.