Record blue dollar: after the previous shot, the four keys to follow this week

Last week, the blue dollar flew. It rose $30 in one week to $522, a new record face value, and that fully impacts market expectations that, after an extended period of some pax exchangeyou now identify some variables that are stirring you up again as you The primary elections will be closer (PASO) and they anticipate how the trend could continue and what elements will be key for the blue going forward.

Beyond being a rearrangement logical, since it remained quiet for weeks, there are some conjunctural elements that are pushing it upwards and one of them is the electoral context that leads to a search for coverage.

Blue dollar: in an electoral key

“Obviously, there is an increase in the pre-election uncertainty. The new course that politics can take is beginning to annoy investors who are already speculating with a new rise in the official exchange rate, with new regulations that affect access to the US banknote”, describes the economist Joel Lupieri, from Epyca Consultores. to Scope.

The Bull Market Broker Research team points out the same thing, when they say that “we are getting closer to the lessons and, historically, Argentines have always been dollarize”.

“Thus, there is a strong motivation for savers and investors to take refuge and go out looking in any way dollarization. That is why the blue and the financial ones also rise, with CCL reaching $535”, contributes the economist Federico Glustein.

There is no doubt that the demand for coverage It will be an important factor when it comes to seeing the direction that both the parallel dollar and the stock markets take in the coming weeks.

Payment of bonuses and bonuses

Likewise, from Bull Market they mention the payment of Christmas bonuses as another component of the combo that strengthened the blue. “The complementary salaries for June were paid at the end of the previous week and that meant that in the last seven days many savers went to dollarize to the blue,” they say. And, on the other hand, they also point to the fact that some workers charge the semi-annual bonuseswhich can also be dollarized.

Qatari dollar vs. blue and winter holidays

And, on the other hand, they mention the fact that the Winter Break, which begin this Monday, July 17, is an element to take into account as well. “You have to consider that the dollar card is $560 and the blue was $490, so it was convenient to use that exchange rate,” they point out. In fact, even with the rise in recent days, the blue is more convenient than paying in dollars by card.

Negotiations with the IMF

But there are more components in this invigorating combo for the blue. Returning to the macro, Lupieri also mentions that the failure to advance dollars by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) plays in favor of speculation of a certain shortage of currency.

From BullMarket they also agree that what made the blue dollar move faster in recent days was “the non-agreement with the Fund”. They believe that the Government will surely close this negotiation in the short term, but that it is undeniable that the comings and goings and the delay in obtaining the disbursement generates negative expectations in the market.

“In fact, the bonds, which had begun to climb, due to the delay in an agreement, lost the initial momentum they had taken and fell, after an interesting rise,” they warn.

Thus, as the economist Federico Glustein mentions, “there are several factors.” And one of them is, without a doubt, the fact that “there is still no agreement with the IMF regarding the corresponding transfer of dollars in a situation in which the lack of dollars is notorious.”

And it is that the total reserves of the central bank They drop day by day and are now below $27,000 million, while many voices have been warning for days in the City that the net are negative. “This occurs in a context of strong yuan sales,” says Glustein.

What’s Coming for the Blue Dollar

According to his vision, the blue dollar would be having “an overreaction to the context” and, although he considers it very likely that, on the way to STEP, the price could be even higher, he does not rule out that this week there could be a certain retraction in the price as a readjustment to the previous strong rise.

And he anticipates that it is probable that there will be new measures by the BCRA to satisfy the growing demand for foreign currency prior to the elections that will come in a month. This refers to stock adjustment measures, the possibility of a new differentiated exchange rate or announcements regarding the use of the swap with China.