Since last week, the Dolar blue began to slowly adjust its price after weeks of dormancy. In six days, the currency price rose $25 (a little more than 5%) and although for some economists it is little -in relation to inflation-, many investors are wondering if we are at an ideal moment to dollarize the wallets waiting for the PASSED that will occur on August 13, despite the fact that the rate of Fixed deadlines is positive compared to inflation.
Although the positive real rate is attractive to many and can help moderate the rise in the dollaris not enough for all investors since, if you are more experienced, you will know that in an electoral scenario it will be more expensive in the future and you will be able to improve your profitability in dollars.
Is the dollar expensive or cheap?
Some economists claim that a dollar at $500/$550 is a dollar expensive in real terms. However, when a possible unification of the exchange rate of a possible new government is contemplated, it may be cheap for this time, prior to the PASSED. However, it should not be ruled out that the exchange rate probably – the MEP and the CCL above all- In the short term, it ends up losing to inflation.
The analyst Salvador Di Stéfano maintains that “if inflation in 2023 stands at 130% per year, being optimistic, the blue should show a similar behavior to the inflation and trade at $800 in December 2023″.
What can you invest in?
Di Stéfano’s recommendation is to buy negotiable obligations (ON) and promissory notes adjusted for dollar linked or wholesaler. “A victory for the opposition could reduce the gap, and this would leave large profits for those who invest in the medium term. With these instruments you buy a dollar at a wholesale price and in 2 to 3 years they will return the equivalent of a market dollar, if the next government in 2 to 3 years eliminates the negotiation gap, you earn almost 100% in dollars”.
The Actions They are still a very good investment alternative, be it cedears or local stocks. Argentine bonds have value to capture.
He electoral scenario went from a dispute of third parties, to the classic of Argentine politics, with Together for Change with an internal one that makes it very competitive, and the ruling party that will fight. The market began to arbitrate upwards, you have to diversify, go from dollars to assets.
In the world the short-term rate in the United States it is at 5.25% per year, in the United Kingdom 5.0% per year and in Europe 4.0% per year. It is time to move the dollars, the Argentines have close to US$200,000 million parked, in fixed terms with a low rate or in coffers waiting for an investment. If these dollars are not invested, they will lose purchasing power.
In this context, do not lose sight of the investment in estatedismissed by the market, like the shares 3 years ago, and today they are worth 3 times more in dollars.
Source: Ambito
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