The pre-election tension, the delay in announcing the agreement with the IMF, the delay in the face of inflation and the increase in monetary liquidity These are some of the causes of the rise of the blue dollar, according to some economists, who gave their forecasts of how far it can go.
Joel Lupierithe Epyca consultant analyst, stated: “It is very possible that the dollar will continue to rise as a result of the uncertainty that is being generated regarding the electoral climate. The lack of clarity of the candidates regarding the exchange rate triggers speculation regarding to a potential exchange jump. In the same way, the non-agreement with the IMF and the worsening of the depletion of the reserves in the BCRA, accelerate the run of the parallel exchange rates”.
“Speculating how far the blue dollar can go is virtually impossible, but looking at the dynamics of the last few weeks it begins to become clear that 500 is a new floor,” he said.
For his part, Salvador Vitelli, An economist and financial analyst, he opined that the strong intervention that the BCRA made on the MEP Dollar shows that the Government will seek that the price “does not shoot up much more” and that they will try to keep it at the current level.
“An announcement of an agreement with the fund could ease the pressure there is, but without a doubt a non-agreement would generate greater pressure. For now it remains stable and we don’t see that they are going to let it run too long. There was even intervention in the blue to mark the closing values,” he said.
Elena Alonso, an economist at Grupo Broda, considered “the trend will surely continue until the elections.” “It’s a time to be dollarized,” he said, predicting that the rise in the value of the blue will beat inflation.
Andres Reschinifrom the F2 consultancy, said “Knowing precisely how far to go is very difficult. Firmness is noted in the demand for dollarization given the proximity to the PASO. The issue continues to finance the Treasury, which injects more fuel.”
And he added: “Following the growth of the stock of pesos, the CCL should be close to 580 and is worth 530. On the other hand, it was always a value close to that of blue and it can guide us a bit, although in a stress scenario it can acquire a higher value and unpredictable.”
the analyst Salvador Di Stefano He predicted that the value of the blue will be close to 580 or 600 and closer to the elections due to the expectation. But he warned that it is a mistake to go to the Black Market for Foreign Exchange when you can opt for the MEP dollar.
The Economist Gabriel Caamanofrom the consultancy Ledesma, opined that the blue dollar “is not that it is very crazy or off the hook with respect to the rise in prices in the first semester.”
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Speaking to NA, he added that “it’s not that he was asleep and now he’s waking up, but clearly what is moving with the rest of the prices, for now it’s nothing dramatic, which does not mean that if there is a shock or something unforeseen cannot make an abrupt jump,” he added.
Caamaño pointed out that “it is not higher because the Central Bank continues to intervene in the MEP dollar and does not let it take off”, considering that financial exchange rates have a greater impact on inflation than the blue dollar.
For his part, Victor Beckerdirector of the Center for the Study of the New Economy at the University of Belgrano, believes that “if one compares the dollar with inflation, it undoubtedly fell behind and at some point it has to recover.”
The economist opined that “also the uncertainty such as the lack of news about the resolution of the agreement with the IMF, with which the signature announced so many times is never reached.”
Beker pointed out that “when there is more liquidity, such as the collection of the bonus or the one injected by the Central Bank, people want to protect their assets with the dollar, in addition to the fact that we are in the pre-electoral period, in which this phenomenon also occurs ” .
In statements to NA, he considered that the Central Bank “does not have many weapons to stop the free dollar, if we see that it had to resort to China to pay the IMF, which adds more uncertainty.”
“Today the reserves are so thin and you are not supposed to spend them to influence the parallel market, although at times you did,” Beker added.
For his part, the financial analyst christian buteleraffirmed that “the market is being seen dollarizing before the elections.”
“It had slowed down a bit with the possible agreement with the IMF, but now versions are coming out saying that it is a temporary agreement and it seems that they will not have the funds that they had said,” Buteler commented.
He added that the Central Bank “does not stop losing reserves and continues issuing pesos to assist the Treasury, which means more pesos on the street that will put pressure on the exchange market.
“The price of the blue at almost $530 does not seem to me to be a cheap dollar, but the uncertainty in the market is great and that makes the pressure on the demand for parallel dollars grow even more and it is quickly reflected in the prices “The analyst added his statements.
Source: Ambito
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