In order to give more liquidity to the official market, the monetary authority last week prohibited financial entities from adding dollars to their holdings until the end of the month, while on Tuesday the Financial Information Unit (UIF) recommended that companies follow carefully those who request dollar operations counted with settlement or MEP, whose Free quotes operated between $ 199 and $ 213, very far from the official wholesale dollar, which is trading above $ 100.
The market views with growing concern the (official) efforts to contain financial dollars, and even some more free references, looking to control their dynamics on the last wheels before the elections. “Even though this strategy is expected to be reassessed later, since the sustained pressure on net reserves would no longer be sustainable,” commented economist Gustavo Ber, from Estudio Ber.
Precisely the level of liquid reserves (already below $ 1,700 million), devaluation expectations – repeatedly discounted by the Government – firm inflation and a growing fiscal deficit are engines that drive the parallel dollar every day, which, Will it hold at current levels, already above $ 200, and can it find respite and go down after the election?
The answers are part of the conjecture at this time, and everything depends largely on the signals that the Government begins to give after the electoral result on Sunday. Here is the opinion of three economists in this regard:
Guido Lorenzo, economist and director of LCG
If we add the current gap levels, and the loss of reserves, I don’t see the blue dollar going down. The price is not only discounting the uncertainty of Sunday, but is reflecting that there are real problems.
The wide exchange gap makes the demand for dollars grow and therefore reserves fall, in anticipation of devaluation. That is what can make you think that the price of blue can be maintained at the current levels. Nor is the Central Bank in a very comfortable position to sustain this exchange rate.
Some will say, well, the Government affirms that they are not going to devalue, but at the same time there are rumors that the market may unfold. Anyway, sooner or later the market sees that at some point it does not matter when, the exchange rate has to correct and that is independent of whether they say they are not going to devalue.
Jorge Neyro, economic analyst
The value of the blue at $ 200 or $ 205 is a reasonable price for the level of uncertainty we have. There are many doubts about what will happen after the elections, in terms of economic policy decisions, and the terms of the agreement with the International Monetary Fund.
These levels do not seem far-fetched, even more so looking at some other financial dollar quotes.
What will happen to the blue after the elections? I think it will depend a lot on the economic policy decisions, which makes the trajectory a bit unpredictable, But anyway, it could go down a bit eventually if the uncertainty dissipates towards scenarios of moderation and convergence towards an agreement with the Fund in a reasonable time, but not too long.
Camilo Tiscornia, economist and director of C&T Economic Advisors
What happens to the price of the blue dollar after the elections it will depend a lot on what the government does. Only they know.
Speculating is now impossible. A priori, with what has been increasing the amount of money, it is difficult for it to fall. There should be a major change in expectations and it seems difficult.
With which, in the short term after the elections, pressure on the dollar in alternative markets is likely to continue.
Source From: Ambito
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