Less than 5 days from PASSEDhe dollar It is the recurring theme in most Argentines. Within this framework, a new report was published by 40 banks and economic consultancies that made their projections regarding what could happen with the exchange rate, inflation and GDP for the coming months.
The August report FocusEconomics It goes in the same direction as the previous report: economic contraction, greater devaluation of the official dollar and strong pressure on prices.
“Argentina is destined to be the worst-performing economy in Latin America this year, hit by currency controls, runaway inflation, drought and sky-high interest rates,” experts warn in the survey.
At the same time, they complete that the risks are biased to the downside and include “a currency collapse, debt default, and political uncertainty.”
Growth
FocusEconomics analysts consider that GDP will fall by 2.5% in 2023, the same figure estimated by last month’s survey.
Inflation
Refering to inflationthe different measures promoted by the Government, such as taxes on imports, and the escalation of the free dollar due to electoral tension, presuppose a higher inertia of prices.
“Inflation will be, on average, notably higher this year than in 2022, driven by the fall of the peso and the monetary financing of the fiscal deficit,” the economists indicate. They affirm that there will be a depreciation of the peso “faster than expected”.
Thus, economists expect the Consumer prices will increase 116.1% on average in 2023which represents an increase of 0.1 percentage points with respect to the report made in July.
Dollar
However, the projections made in August for the official wholesale dollar price by the end of December, they continue to show an upward trend.
That is, the economists relieved in the FocusEconomics They reached a consensus that the wholesale exchange rate will have a price of up to $458 at the end of the year, which represents 6 pesos more compared to the estimated value last July.
Therefore, if these estimates were to be given, the devaluation of the peso registered in all of 2023 would be 158.5%and would be above the 116.1% inflation forecast.
And if the current price of the wholesale exchange rate is taken ($284.2), between now and the end of December it could increase more than 61%.
Source: Ambito
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