tiscornia argues that, at this point, the Government faces a “strain” since “doesn’t like having to move it quickly and that’s why they don’t want to take the jump that’s out there suing the IMF”, and also warns: “It seems to me that they will not be able to stop it anymore And, already in August, they are increasing it faster than they did in July, so I think that they are going to continue trying to control it and avoid the jump. I believe that this is the Government’s intention as regards the official exchange rate”.
The economist also indicates that the possibility that the Government has to continue “controlling” that price will depend, to a large extent, “the result of the elections”, which “will greatly influence the exchange rates financial” and where the political and the market look.
Tiscornia concludes by saying that the more possibilities the financial market of a possible change of government, it is probable that the situation in the financial exchange rates “stay calmer”. However, if the Union for the Homeland (UxP) shows greater competitiveness and it is not clear what will be he bottom line up October. This uncertainty could, “potentially increase nervousness and generate effects in financial exchange rates”.
The day after 8-13 will depend on the electoral result
Alejandro Giacacoiaeconomist of Ecoviews Submits that “A scenario where Together for Change (JxC) wins is not the sameone where the UxP is doing better than expected or one where (Javier) miley Get a good number of votes.
For Giacacoia, a solid performance “of the extremes, like Milei or Massa”, could induce some turmoil in the foreign exchange market. Also, a crucial aspect to consider is the currency strategy that the Government will adopt after the elections, “with a focus on the agreement with the IMF”.
And he adds: “So far, the Government accelerated devaluation of the official currency”, so it will be necessary to see if this trend continues after the PASSED. Furthermore, the role of the market intervention could also affect behavior of the price of dollar after the elections.
Everything will depend on the difference in points between the main parties
For Lucio Garay Mendezeconomist of EcoGothe movement of dollar It will depend beyond who is the winner, which “be the difference between the candidates and, above all, between the main political parties”.
Garay Mendez argues that, given the background, it is highly probable that “there will not be major changes in the dollar exchange rate“, since there was already an “anticipation on the part of the people and the parallel dollars already presented significant increases”, with the exception of MEP dollar, which is intervened by the Central.
The analyst of EcoGo adds that, with the acceleration of the crawling peg by the BCRA, the body confirms that the official dollar “It moves in August at a monthly rate of 12%well above the inflation“, which, in his view, is essential for what happens in “the negotiations with the Fund and in the dollar account and it is likely that this will continue because of the weak state of the reserves”.
Dollar: if the ruling party wins, the currency skyrockets
Aldo Abramdirector of the Freedom and Progress Foundationassures that the future of the country is marked by “the uncertainty about a possible change of governmenteither”.
For Abram, the electoral results “will be decisive in confirming whether there will be a significant change in the political leadership.” In this sense, he maintains that, if the results reinforce the tendency towards a government with the capacity to change the current course, “andThe value of the dollar is likely to rise more moderately“and that, at the end of the transition period, there is confidence in that direction, “even with the possibility of an appreciation of the peso” in front of dollar.
In contrast, he adds, if the election results “raise doubts about the possibility of change” management, the value of dollar will tend to increase more sharply. And sentence: “The victory of a candidate that does not promote change course leads to obvious problems and a crash in weight demand Argentinian”.
The consensus: closing the gap that is a “pressure cooker”
Sergio Chouzadirector of Consultora Sarandí, states that there is a very broad consensus that a gap has opened “between the MEP and the blue close to 10%”, and that sometimes even reaches a higher percentage, “which has to be closed“.
Somewhere in the middle, Chouza argues, the gap will have to be closed, which will depend on How is the electoral map formed?That is, if it closes closer to $600 or closer to $520,” though he admits, it’s hard to dial a number when “the market is so choppy“.
chouza concludes that given the limited capacity of the Government to intervene, especially in the informal segment that is influenced by the dynamics of coverage these days, the most relevant data “without a doubt“It will be the electoral result, which will mark if said gap is “closes closer to the MEP or if it closes closer to the blue“.
Four days from PASSEDthen the questions that are asked the market are with what type of economic policies the Government will react on Monday, August 14 and What’s going to happen with the dollar and national assets. Everything will depend on how many points each candidate got.
Source: Ambito
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