In July, the central bank (BCRA) made the decision to maintain undisturbed the interest rates reference. This measure was based on the slowdown who presented the rate of inflation in June. Specifically, the monetary policy raterepresented by the rate of Liquidity Bills (LELIQ) at 28 days, remained constant at a level of 97% nominal annual (equivalent to 154.9% effective annual).
It should be noted that this rate continued in positive territory in real termsboth in comparison with inflation that had been observed that month, as with the expectations of price increases projected by the market.
Fixed term: deposits contracted in July
I agree with you official datathe placements to fixed term in pesos by the private sector contracted in July, the month before the PASSED“although they are still maintained at levels close to all-time highs in terms of GDP”, maintains the BCRA.
In this sense, deposits to fixed term in pesos by the private sector registered a contraction of 0.8% adjusted for constant prices in July. Despite this fall, said placements remain at levels close to the maximum levels of the last decades, maintains the organization led by Miguel Angel Pesce.
In terms of the amount strata in term placements, the fall in July was mainly concentrated in the wholesale segment (more than $20 million), and is largely explained by changes in the portfolio composition of the Money Market Mutual Funds (FCI of MM).
In this context, the daily evolution of time deposits indicates that holdings of fixed term of the Financial Services Providers (PSF) ended the month with a slight increase compared to the end of June. On the other hand, investments with an early cancellation option managed to stabilize, after a drop evidenced in the sixth month of the year.
Fixed term and STEP: how these instruments arrive at the elections
The analysts consulted by Ambit agree that, in real terms, placements at fixed term in July they grew, but they estimate that, after coverage dynamics that occurs in the days before I STEP THEMpossibly the amount of the fixed terms for August falls.
Andres Reschinian analyst at F2 Soluciones Financieras, points out that, given the notorious inclination “toward the dollar that has been seen since the end of July and so far in August”, added to the expectations of an acceleration of inflation “we are likely to see decline to fixed terms in real terms in August”.
In the same vein, he expresses Joel Lupierian analyst at the consulting firm Epyca, who assures that it is possible that renewals of fixed terms will fall “due to the fact that uncertainty is rising“. In this sense, adds Lupieri, “many of those who receive the maturity of their term placements will be more interested to hedge against the volatility of the dollarwhat in gaining rate in pesos”. He warns that, if this occurs, the pressure against the price of the dollar will continue.
Crawling peg and interest rates: what the BCRA will do
A few days before the PASO, the Central seems to ratify the acceleration of the appreciation of the dollar against the peso (crawling peg) which, according to analysts, will move in August at a monthly rate 12%well above inflation.
“At this moment, it seems that there will be no changes in the monetary policy rates,” he explains alfredo romanodirector of the Romano Group, and adds: “It is important to bear in mind that the uncertainty regarding to the official dollar It will be cleared after the elections.”
In this sense, Romano explains, it is possible that after the results of the elections news arise that could impact the official exchange rate. Therefore, if there were to be an acceleration or a greater devaluation in the value of the official dollar, “it is probable that in the short term it will be observed an increase in interest ratess” by the BCRA.
This movement could be a measure to try to control the possible consequencess of higher inflationwhich could arise due to the “official dollar devaluation“. However, Romano warns that it is important to keep in mind that all this remains to be seen and that we have to wait for a clearer picture. “In the short term, in the next few days, I would not anticipate significant changes.”
For his part, the economist christian buteler points out that the evolution of fixed-term deposits, up to August 7, “have not presented any inconvenience”. In fact, deposits have grown in almost $800,000 million in a month and mentions that this is normal growth, taking into account the interest rate.
The analyst points out that the fixed term deposits They have not been affected by the recent currency run, which is a good sign,”since it could indicate that the economy is not out of control.
However, he concludes, it is important to take into account that the data available is up to Monday, August 7, so it is likely that there will be “problems” in deposits to fixed term in the days after.
Source: Ambito
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