Dolar blue, without a roof?: How far can it climb and how does the devaluation of the official influence?

this journey The Argentine Central Bank made the decision to devalue the official currency by 22% and, in parallel, the blue dollar climbed to $685This happened after the elections. Simultaneous and Compulsory Open Primary (PASO)where javier milei was positioned as the most voted candidate.

So, the BCRA raised the official exchange rate to $350 after the results of the PASO and until the elections on October 22. With this decision, the gap with the wholesaler is shortened to 95%. The monetary entity also resolved to raise the monetary policy rate (including the fixed term traditional) in 21 percentage points.

It should be noted that on Sunday after knowing the first results of the elections, the crypto dollar had skyrocketed as high as $720 on some exchanges, averaging $685 across all. This anticipated a strong path of the parallel exchange rate on the first business day of this week.

“Not only the devaluation of the official dollar came without respite after the primaries but also a sharp jump in the rate in search of mitigating the dollarization process that could be accentuated in the current climate of uncertainty and political and economic volatility,” said the economist Gustavo Ber.

Given this, he completed, “it is foreseeable after an electoral reading as a black swan is that financial, and free, dollars soar as the search for cover deepens among economic agents” and added that “since, in addition, an official devaluation would add even greater pressure to the anticipated dangerous acceleration of the economy’s nominal value.”

in dialogue with Scope, Gonzalo ChiarulloVice President and CEO of Stock Number described the course of this first business day after PASO: “Regarding the blue, yesterday the crypto dollar was the most followed, since it is the only one that trades 24/7, reaching $670 after the first announcements of the results. Today the blue woke up with only buy prices (the “caves” did not sell) starting the first update at $640with minute-by-minute updates reaching $700 at times.”

“At the moment it is trading stable at 680/690, which could be a break-even point, showing that the caves have sold again”specific.

For his part, Amilcar Alcollanteeconomist of CESURopined in a chat with Ámbito: “It is understandable that the blue dollar has upward pressure after the devaluation of the official and the uncertainty of the electoral result. The gap without a fund program is 90%/100%.”

The Government devalues ​​the official dollar: how it influences

Alfredo Romano, director of the Economics and Finance area of ​​the consultancy Romano GroupIn dialogue with this medium, he said about the measure: “The evaluation did not generate the results that were expected because there was a rise of almost 24 points in the political and monetary rate and an evaluation of more than 20% but nevertheless the parallels kept running which is an absolutely untenable gap still.”

“Unfortunately this evaluation of the official exchange rate puts us in a new inflationary regime for the second semester of 10% per month inflation”, expanded Roman. “This implies that in two three months the official exchange ratedespite the fact that the Central Bank does not want to touch it, it is not balance with which you will have to evaluate what to do. my feeling is that In three months inflation determines by eating that little competitiveness that you were gaining from the evaluation of the currency”.

“They are absolutely isolated measures that are not going to have any result other than further deteriorating the economy and economic activity and logically generate more imbalances in the coming months in Argentina’s macroeconomy”, closed Roman.