One of the great dilemmas of Argentine savers is usually how to protect their capital of the inflation and the devaluation of the peso against him dollar. The two instruments that they usually point to are the blue dollar and the traditional fixed term. And, given the 22% adjustment in the value of the official exchange rate and the rise of 21 percentage points in the rates applied by the Central Bank (BCRA).
It happens that both Dolar blue As the fixed term, they are two channels of affordable weights and easy to understand for the majority. That is why the comparison of both instruments is usually a natural tendency when thinking about where to put the savings. And, in this sense, Salvador Di Stefanoan investment specialist and one of the most respected gurus in the City, analyzes with Ambit what is the best option in this new context.
“According to what the Government ordered, the official dollar will be at $350 until October 22, taking into account that the gap with the blue dollar was 110%, if we project it to today, taking into account the new wholesale exchange rate, the maximum value that the Dolar blue in the market would be $735 in the coming months”, highlights Di Stefano.
Blue dollar or fixed term: what is best for the saver
In this sense, he explains that, taking into account that the BCRA increased the short-term rate to 118% per year, with an effective annual rate of 208.4%. “The truth is that it doesn’t make much sense to stay in the blue dollar right now,” he says. Di Stefano.
Let’s remember that this Monday, the Dolar blue closed $665 for purchase and $685 for sale, although in some parts of the country it closed even higher and very close to $700 seller.
Thus, the analyst points out that “one option could be to sell at around $870 per blue and place the pesos in term until September with nominal annual rate (TNA) of 118% and, according to quick calculations, with an effective rate of $209%, if I place it in a term and renew for two months, I am earning around 20% more”, given that the monthly rate is around 9.8%.
Fixed term, with a positive real rate
According to the calculations of Di Stefano, if the blue dollar is sold today at $700 or a little less and the total is placed at a 60-day term, that gives you a total of around $844.38. And he adds that it is a fairly guaranteed profit since he explains that, taking into account that the official dollar It is at $350 at the moment. To lose money with this investment against the blue, the gap should exceed 140%, which is quite difficult to happen at current values.
The analyst points out that “finally, the BCRA decided to put strongly positive real rates and that is a very good step.” Thus, he anticipates that there will likely be a new flow of pesos towards the blue dollar.
“In summary, I consider that it is a good moment to sell blue and go to rates because, in two months, it will not increase so much as to beat the performance that was set now and the credit is expensive”, summarizes Di Stefano.
In this way, it suggests that this is a good alternative at this time to carry out this operation and, for example, settle the credit cardwhich at this time began to charge an annual rate of 107% as a result of the rate adjustment implemented by the central bank this Monday.
Source: Ambito
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