Dollar bonds deepen their fall this Tuesday, August 15, after the strong collapse of the day yesterdaydriven by the impact that the primary election results last Sunday, in which arose javier milei, of La Libertad Avanza, as the candidate with the most votes. At the same time, the local shares climb up to 5%.
He BYMA’s S&P Merval advances a 2.1%to 506,626,910 unitsagainst its intraday record of 513,204.26 points reached on Monday, led by energy papers.
Within this framework, in the Buenos Aires stock market, the papers that rise the most are those of central port (+4.9%), cresud (+4.7%) and Southern Gas Transporter (+4.5%). Meanwhile, the only stocks that fall are those of Supervielle Group (-0.3%).
On Wall Street, the Argentine ADRs they started the wheel with majorities of raises. The actions that climb the most are the edenor (+4.1%), Pampa Energy (+3.4%) and Macro Bank (+1.9%). While, those that operate with the greatest falls are those of BBVA (-2.1%), Bioceres (-1.8%) and Supervielle Group (-1.4%).
Context
He unexpected triumph in the PASO of the libertarian candidate of Liberty Advances (LLA), had a very negative impact on the , which in plummeted up to 14%, although the splinters also reached the Argentine shares that, with strong volatility, yielded up to 9.2% on Wall Street, while the blue dollar flirted with the $700.
“This is a totally unexpected result. Before the election the market assigned a 5% chance that Milei would win the election,” admitted the economist María Moyano Hidalgo, from Adcap. “Offshore investors are very skeptical of the ability to implement the measures that Milei proposes. The first reaction of the market was not good,” she added.
For the Consultant 1816the result of the STEP turned out to be “a black swan” and maintained that “it was not anyone’s scenario and forces us to recalculate investments.” “Although the two most pro-market candidates (Milei and Patricia Bullrich) together obtained 47% of the votes and Peronism did not reach 30%, things that, a priori, could interpreted as positive for assetswe tend to think that the effect of uncertainty will be the prevailing effect,” the firm said in a private assessment that it distributed to its clients.
Although Milei had no internal competition in her La Libertad Avanza party, Sunday’s result provides clear indications of what could happen in the October general elections, since the libertarian economist obtained 30.03% of the votes, according to a provisional count advanced to 97.4%.
The centre-right coalition Together for Changeuntil Sunday favorite for the presidential elections, achieved only 28.3% of the votes and consecrated as his candidate for ex-minister Patricia Bullrich, which represents the most radical wing of the alliance. On the other hand, the official coalition, led by the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massaobtained 27.2% of the votes.
In a report ahead of the primary, Goldman Sachs said that Milei generates uncertainty for her “radical” political proposals. “It attracts young, anti-establishment voters, but it does not have a well-established fan base and lacks a broader political platform to support it, unlike more traditional political parties,” the investment bank said.
In this framework, last Monday, the Central Bank (BCRA) ran a leap of around 20% of the peso against the dollar and determined an increase in the rate of 21 pointsup to a 118% TNA (209.45% TEA).
After the measure taken by the Argentine government, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) On Monday, he valued the “recent policy actions of the authorities and the commitment to safeguard stability,” while informing that his board of directors will meet on August 23rd for approve new disbursements for the country.
Bonds and country risk
Meanwhile, the Argentine sovereign titles in hard currency fall to 7.7%as is the case of Global 2035followed by the Global 2030 (-6.1%) and the bonar 2029 (-5.7%). This occurs after the sharp post-electoral slump that the bonds in dollars had in the previous round, in which they fell to more than 14%.
Meanwhile, the risk countrymeasured by JP Morgan bank, scale 2.4% until 2,139 units and reaches his highest level in almost two monthsafter jumping a 8.9% in the previous wheel.
Source: Ambito
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