For investors: what opportunities appear for the pesos in the troubled river of the market

The consultants anticipated different scenarios for last Sunday but none, or almost, managed to guess what finally happened: Javier Milei won the PASO with more than 30% of the votes over the two formulas of Together for Change and Unión por la Patria. We already know the image of the next day: devaluation of the official exchange rate of 22% and a new rise in interest rates by the BCRA.

Nicolás Cappella, Sales Trader at IEB, revealed what happened after the devaluation. “There was a great rescue of FCI Dollar linked, which caused a lot of sales of this type of titles” described and discussed: “This opened the window for DL ​​titles to be repurchasable as the TV24 with positive tir (DL+4) or that you can buy dual titles, TDS23, TDF24, TDA24 or TDG24″.

And he said that, in the case of dollar linked securities purely, “we see that the devaluation and increase in rates carried out, without a plan behind that anchors expectations, will lead to the scenario of leaving a fixed official TC until October, after the elections, we will return to the same real exchange rate that we had before since the inflation of August and September can come with double digits”.

Therefore, concludes Cappella, “after October we could have greater devaluations. With the duals The hypothesis is the same, except that if there are no major devaluations until October or until the end of the year, we will be able to continue accruing CER instruments, as a safeguard“.

For his part, Paula Gándara, CIO of Adcap Asset Managementt, said that “at this time there will be more attractiveness for the funds that we call the T0 that are the money markets, which one can subscribe and redeem, that is, buy and sell the fund on the same day. They have investments in non-market assets, which means that they do not have the volatility of the instruments and they will avoid volatility.”

Gándara also established that within the FCI are they “T+1 what does it mean that being able to withdraw the money that “also they are quite liquid and are conservative and they can work very well, but we are already talking about, for example, an investment horizon of one month”.

For his part, Mateo Reschini, Senior Research Analyst at Inviuopined: “Regarding the devaluation, now what is left is to cover yourself from the aftermath of what comes next. Today what we recommend are assets that are adjusted for inflation. These last two days the market has been taking these assets and some are already becoming expensive, so the reality is that there are not many other assets left to take.”

“In other words, today, knowing that inflation is coming, you have to look for those titles that are still behind. Mainly, for example, the P2X4, which is a short-term title that presents a positive real interest rate.because the rest of the market took so long that they left the real interest rate negative,” Reschini closed.

from the team of IOL Investor Research Onlineconsidered that “positioning itself in CER assets and in some assets that adjust for devaluation they represent the best option to protect value against inflation (always considering the maturity terms and the investor profile).

In the short term, they recommend the National Treasury Letter X23N3 that adjusts capital by CER. This letter with maturity on November 23, 2023 (98 days) to date has a yield of CER +3.60%. For the medium term, the National Bond T2X4 that adjusts capital by CER. This bond matures on July 26, 2024 (344 days) and to date has a yield of CER +5.5%. And for the long term, the National Bond T4X4 that adjusts capital by CER. This bond maturing on November 14, 2024 (424 days) to date has a yield of CER +8.2%.