Key to rates: US jobless claims fell

The number of Americans who filed new unemployment benefits applications it fell last week, which shows that the labor market is still tense in the northern country.

He work Department reported Thursday that initial applications for state unemployment benefits they fell by 11,000, to a seasonally adjusted 239,000, in the week ending August 12. This is in line with what was raised by economists polled by Reuters, who estimated 240,000 applications for the last week.

Orders soared in the week ending Aug. 5, with Ohio rising the most. This state had already registered fraudulent requestss previously, so most economists downplayed the increased filings.

Although the job market is slowing down and the increase of employment in July it was the second lowest since December 2020, overall conditions remain tense. The unemployment rate stands at levels of more than 50 years ago. In June there were 1.6 vacancies for every unemployed person.

Expectations for rates in the United States

Minutes from the July 25-26 Federal Reserve meeting released Wednesday showed that while the monetary authorities recognized “signs that demand and supply were reaching a better balance”, “judged that further progress was necessary towards the balance of demand and supply in the labor market, and expected a further relaxation in labor conditions. working market over time”.

Since March 2022, the us central bank has raised its overnight reference interest rate by 525 basis points, to the current range of 5.25% to 5.50%. Most economists believe that the rising cycle The fastest Fed policy in more than 40 years is probably over, given the recent moderation in inflation.

The resistance of working market is propping up the economy by boosting retail sales and the construction of houses.

Economists have lowered their forecasts for recession for this year and they are increasingly favorable to the idea that the fed can guide the economy towards a “soft landing”.

Unemployment benefits: this is how the requests evolved

The data on unemployment benefits applications They covered the period during which the government surveyed businesses for the nonfarm payrolls component of the August employment report. Applications increased slightly between July and August.

Next week’s data on the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of help, a recruitment approach, will offer more clues about the health of the labor market in August

The calls continuous requests increased by 32,000, to 1.716 million, during the week ending Aug. 5, according to the claims report.

At current levels, the continued requests remain low compared to historical records, indicating that some laid-off workers are experiencing short spells of unemployment.