On the first day after PASO, the Fixed deadlines in pesos from the private sector fell 2.7% ($338,000 million), biggest drop so far this yearas reported by the consultant Delphos Investment.
“The result of the PASO triggered a significant outflow of deposits that drove the rise in Dollars financial and the BLUE. The dynamics of deposits will have to be carefully monitored as “thermometer” of nervousness of the private sector after the PASO”, they expressed in the daily report. In principle, it is worth clarifying that this movement in investors occurred before the devaluation of the Central Bank and the rise in the fixed term rate.
According to analysts estimate, the dollar CCL It stands at “relatively high levels in real terms” and affirms that the market “continues to favor hard currency coverage due to the electoral uncertainty left by the PASO”. In this sense, the Dolar blue has been rising $175 (28%) after the STEP, while the MEP dollar it rises $112, an increase of 20%.
For its part, the consultant Aurum Values He also noticed the same movement in placements. “After the PASO, on Monday the 14th, the stock of fixed terms in pesos of the private sector suffered the biggest daily drop of the year.”
For PPI (Personal Investor Portfolio) “this flow of pesos went to sight deposits (savings and checking accounts), although we believe that part was dollarized (To sterilize the pesos, the MEP must have been against the BCRA)”.
Fixed term: the strategy of the Central Bank to curb the demand for dollarization
After the result of the primary elections, finally, the Central Bank (BCRA) established a devaluation of the official wholesale dollar that same Monday up to $350 and, in line with this measure, resolved to raise the monetary policy rate (including the traditional fixed-term rate) by 21 percentage points, up to 118% (Annual Nominal Rates, TNA), which is equivalent to 209% in effective annual terms, TEA, and an effective monthly yield of 9.7%.
Thus, Communication “A” 7822 of the BCRA established that the Fixed deadlines for human persons of up to $30 million it stands at 9.7%, 1.7 percentage points above the 8% in force up to now. While, for the rest of the time deposits of the private sector, the minimum guaranteed rate was established at 111%, with a effective monthly interest of 9.12%.
The adjustment measure of the wholesale exchange rate equals one 22% devaluation of the dollar in a single day. Thus, market speculation that the government would devalue after the results of the PASO were confirmed. This measure implies the suspension of the crawling peg, the rhythm of daily microdevaluations that the BCRA had been carrying out, until the presidential elections in October.
And it is that this jump in the exchange rate at these levels requires a rate adjustment, which seeks to remain positive in real terms regarding the economy and the evolution of the official dollar. “This is a first move to sustain reserves and try to maintain the demand for pesos,” says economist Rodrigo Álvarez.
Finally, it is important to clarify that although the measure carried out by the monetary authority was carried out on Monday, the same day that the stock of time deposits fell, in some banks the implementation of the rate increase was registered the following day, which which may have had an impact on investors not seeing an attractive rate until Tuesday.
Source: Ambito
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