Dollar blue fell after 12 rises in a row: what is the floor projected by the market

After the STEP the exchange market suffered a shock. Javier Milei’s victory with La Libertad Avanza was followed by a hectic Monday: devaluation of the official exchange rate, remarking of prices, and a skyrocket of the blue dollar for several days until the $795, new record. This Thursday descended for the first time in 13 days despite still worth over $150 above the close of the Friday before the elections.

In that framework, the gap was 115.7%after touching 127.1 on Wednesday, its highest level since the July 2022 bullfight, after the resignation of the then Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán. The blue so far this week accumulates a jump of $155. For their part, stock exchange rates also continued to be under pressure with the CCL above the $740 and the MEP locating in $660.

for the economist Federico Glustein, “andThe blue dollar is overheated” and its strong rise all this week “represents the uncertainty created from the electoral result plus the devaluation”. “Despite the fall of the Qatar dollar, it overreacted to levels that seemed to have no ceiling or floor, but rather absolute rudderless volatility in economic management. After a few days, we see a setback as a result of the lack of buyers at these values, so it closed at $760 after having touched $800“, he explained.

About what could be your floorsaid that “it could continue to go down quickly up to the current CCL value, which is $740although it would be necessary to think about a dynamic that allows evaluating if the gap with the MEP of 15% is sustained for a long time or tends to break the floor set by the CCL and push the demands and prices lower“.

Finally, Glustein said that there was a use of the “mash” dollar and therefore, could continue the bearish path as a “profit take”. However, all this analysis clarified It can be reversed if macro-level issues occur, such as the failure to send dollars from the IMF or political factors.

To its turn, the economist Natalia Motyl said today the apartment is at $700. “The main factor is the disbursements from the IMF, which are the only physical support for the peso that could reassure the markets. In case of squandering that we will continue in a very unstable dynamic in which new upward pressures can develop”, he opined.

“A gradual devaluation without reserves is a time bomb because it negatively impacts demand for the peso. This is what we are seeing now, with an increase in demand for dollars for hedging. Today the market discounts that this government will not be able to sustain the policy of maintaining a backward exchange rate and responds in anticipation of a new correction,” he said.

For his part, financial analyst Salvador Di Stéfano In a column with this medium, he opined: “The rise of the wholesale dollar to $350 changed all the prices in the economy. This left the counters with very high prices for the consumer, this implies that sales will fall, The businesses will not be able to finance their structure expenses with these prices, if the prices are not readjusted downwards, some businesses will have to lower the blinds, or change dollars to finance the transition”.

And expanded: “If we take a price of the blue dollar at $780, that is giving us a gap of 123%, with a gap greater than 120% it would be convenient to sell. If you put this money at 10% per month it is more business.”

For his part, for the economist Gustavo Ber“after the escape of the free dollar, to panic levels that are only behind October 2020, is that traders’ attention turns to financial dollars as they have been laggingto a greater extent clearly the MEP for the interventions, and thus opening space for arbitration by some operators”.