Blue dollar in giddy mode: why it jumped almost $180 in three days and then dropped $60

Clearly, the measurements of a surprise devaluation which were taken on Monday after primary elections and the result of that electoral process generated a price jump (perhaps exaggerated) of the informal exchange rate. But, this Thursday, the Dolar blue It started with a strong fall, which deepened this Friday. Beginning to reset?

He Dolar blue accumulates a setback of $60 in two days and stands at $720, after having risen $155 in the first three days of the week. Everything would indicate that, as explained by the analyst Rocío Bisang, from the Eco Go consultancy, “although, in general, one can diagnose these phenomena once they have passed, it became evident in the City that the blue exchange rate it was very high in real terms in the last few days.”

Thus, it could be said that this market underwent a process known as overshootingan exaggerated initial shot, which now, it begins to rearrange. However, that is no coincidence, but rather responded to the level of uncertainty It’s very high these days.

Although Bisang warns that “it still remains to be seen what happens in the future”, for now, there is a downtrend at the close of a week marked by a strong rise. looks like a rearrangement behind the initial shockwhich took it to $795 (intraday high) on Tuesday, although after closed at $780 a day and it is in line with what has been happening in financial dollars as well, which moderated the dynamics this Friday.

What happened in the blue dollar

“This process consists of high levels of volatility of the exchange rates, that is, they go up and down more than they should in a normal state and the adjustment factor of back prices and as the process of establishing a new equilibrium price of the exchange rate”, points out the CEO of Número Bursátil, Gonzalo Chiarullo. In this way, he explains the overreaction that we are seeing in a market that is highly governed by supply and demand.

But, other factors come into play this time. “This overshoot was the product of the electoral result, of the devaluation and rate hike rear and one uncertainty so it can happen until October, with a strong weakness in international reserves ”, explains the economist Federico Glustein to Ámbito. Thus, he considers that the devaluation was “a boomerang, a hit against the very economic situation”, which misbalanced the variables, among them, the price of casual dollar.

And it is that, the economist and director of the consulting firm Sarandí, Sergio Chouza, “that there has been a situation of panic in the market of Dolar blue and responds to the fact that the political anchors are very scarce because the elections are still very far away and, although the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF)it is not yet clear what are the conditions that arise going forward”.

The one who bought blue predicted: why he did it

As the economist Pablo Ferrari warns, in this context there is a complex situation in which, “when a relative price variation so significant, in a matter of days someone can benefit, but it is even more likely that many will be harmed”. And it is clear that those who bought at $795 or $780 this Friday are the big losers.

Of course, this decision to buy at a time of high price of the blue dollar responds to the fact that many in the City expect the inflation follow its acceleration course and the fear that the pesos it has may lose more value against the dollar. However, Ferrari warns that “panic is not a good adviser.”

And he clarifies that the latter is especially valid for the small saverwho “hurries to dollarizedespite the fact that the government fixed an exchange rate until the October elections and increased interest rates.

Thus, he explains that a large part of the upward movement is based on the fact that “many interpret that the problem is that there is always a gap and it seems to always have to be of similar magnitude in relative terms”.

However, he warns that the main problem with the escalation of Dolar blue is that, “apart from the problems it generates for savers, it brings a higher nominality in half a month in which the salary will be greatly affected by price remarking after the devaluation and the escalation of the alternative dollars”.

What’s Coming for the Casual Dollar

Looking ahead, Glustein considers that, in the current context, beyond this drop in readjustment, it would seem difficult to put a floor and a dollar ceiling blue. And it is that he points out that the movements that are seen “do not respond to massive sales and purchases, but to a scenario of unclear probabilities, of unconfirmed electoral victories, but also to a devaluation that it was carried out without the necessary political power to carry it out and that it is transferred to prices”. In this context, he warns that there is a risk that it will skyrocket to unsuspected levels at some point.

Chouza agrees, in part, with this perspective when pointing out that, “today, there are few tools for greed to win over panic” and people choose the rate to the dollar. He explains that, although it beats inflation, “the yield of the fixed term today does not seem to be something that is going to discourage a portfolio dollarization in a context in which the eventual ceiling, in a scenario in which the variables precipitate, is almost infinite”.

However, it recognizes that what may vary is the decoupling that began to occur between the blue and the financial. Notice that a gap between the blue and the MEP like the one that occurred two days ago ($128) was the highest since 2020 and is unsustainable, as seen. In fact, it was down to $100 on Thursday and $72 this Friday.

Thus, for Chouza, that will be is a key element to generate a certain blue dollar stabilization forward, which, at the same time, is fueled by a reduction in this price difference due to the possibility of buying MEP dollars and selling them in the most expensive blue (the famous puree), which today gives a difference close to $68.

Taking this scenario into account, The drop in recent days in the blue dollar is much better news than it seems a priori because it might suggest a possible ceiling. The future is a mystery, but everything would indicate that this exchange rate is seeking its new equilibrium point. With a 22% devaluation in the official exchange rate, it appreciated 21% as of today and that level would seem acceptable for now to much of the market.

For Chiarullo, the possibilities of maintaining this trend exist, but it will be key for the Government to give clear signs of How will you continue with the economic measures of the coming months?. “It will have to satisfy the position of the electorate to end the instability, the distortion of relative prices and to see the recognition of the end of an economic policy sustained continuously for almost 20 years that has reached its exhaustion,” says the analyst.