The most traded Cedear ETF on the local stock market is the one that replicates the Wall Street S&P 500 index and several analysts already maintain that it is close to correcting.
The Cedear ETF of the S&P 500 (SPY) is currently the one with the highest volume in the local market and it is that many investors are using it to dollarize their portfolios and, in addition, choose a competitive instrument. However, and despite the strong gains recorded in the year (+151%), Operators warn that monetary conditions in the United States added to some international events could cause a correction in the original index.
“The combination of headwinds facing the US stock market is screaming correction so loud that, curiously, the only factor that weighs against a movement of this type taking place could be the very fact that markets often defy expectations when a situation seems too obvioussaid the analyst Thomas Monteiro.
Given this, he put forward the causes of why a correction could begin. TO the real estate crisis in china other negative news was added such as that 10-year Treasury rate is highest in 16 yearsand the Fed plans to continue its cycle of interest rate hikes. This was already evidenced by the S&P 500: on 11 out of 14 days in August, it fell 4.8%, which would indicate that this could turn into a rally.
“Thoughe the market seems poised for a more than healthy short-term correctionmy opinion is that, in general terms, none of these factors indicates that the lows of last year will be retested,” said Monteiro, adding: “Unless a major event occurs – such as the worsening of the crisis Chinese real estate or a very harsh move from the Federal Reserve-, the highest probability remains that the S&P 500 remains within 4,000 pointswith significant lateral action for quite some time.”
For its part, to Invest in the Stock Market, “although we maintain a constructive medium-term reading on the S&P 500, in the short term it has entered into a correction that initially seemed to have support at the 4,450 level. Concerns about the financial needs of the Treasury that drove the 10-year rate, added to the turmoil generated by China, have deepened. correction to the 4,330 zone that would have a better chance of being able to support the index”.
Source: Ambito
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