Fixed Term: Should I renew in September?

Deposits to fixed term Deposits of up to $30 million pay interest of 118% nominal per year or 9.7% effective monthly on deposits maturing in 30 days, after the last rate increase made by the Central Bank (BCRA). In these placements, the money is immobilized until the expiration established at the time of constituting it. The best thing to do is to choose only 30 days of duration and make a renewal for the total amount month after month. However the Dolar blue it flew in the month of August and tripled the performance of the fixed term. Should I renew in September?

The rise in the fixed-term rate coincided with the decision to devalue the peso by 22% that same day, after the result of the primary elections (the PASO) and locate the dollar wholesaler official at a fixed value of $350 until October. In this way, all regulated exchange rates they were immediately adjusted upwards (solidarity, Qatar, card, savings and retail, among others). And the same thing happened with the days in the parallel markets of the US currency: the blue, MEP and Cash with Settlement (CCL) they began to settle upwards.

Meanwhile, the inflation, which had been 6% in Julyaccelerated in the second half of the month in line with the adjustment of the official dollar and it is also expected that there will be a greater acceleration in September due to the measures of injection of weights in the pockets of citizens, companies and agricultural producers launched by the Government in recent days.

Fixed term: should I renew in September?

Once the outcome of the investment dispute between Dolar blue, fixed term and inflation of August, now the doubt is what will happen in september. And that is a bit more complex since the context is very uncertain. However, Buteler anticipates that “the rate for this month it will be fought because, although today it is at 10%, we have to see what the BCRAwhether to update it or not, when the data is known inflation”.

We have to wait and see if it goes up or not, but today, prima facie, would be losing against inflation and also against the dollar. And it is that, Buteler explains that “it could not be said that the blue found a roof.”

Consequently, it considers that we have to see what is happening because, clearly, we are in a market in crisis, which has not yet stabilized. However, he hopes that If the government manages to stabilize the exchange rate, the dollar should rise below the rate throughout this month.

Reschini, meanwhile, points out that a high inflation drag remains for September August, which sets a very high floor and is very likely to exceed the current rate. In this context, as stated, it is likely that the rate of return of the fixed termwhich would make it more competitive.

From Romano Group, “we continue to recommend the dollarized positions in search of protection against the uncertainty that the electoral result can generate, above all, if the ruling party comes third and is left out of a possible ballot.” They believe that, in this scenario, there would be a extra pressure towards the liberation of the official exchange rateincreasing uncertainty and, possibly, the deterioration of key variables of the economy: such as inflation, dollar and activity.