This is a very short-term investment perspective given that the Central Bank could once again move the interest rate so that the real yield is above inflation.
A week after the announcement of the inflation measured by INDEC, savers ask themselves again if it is convenient to bet on the traditional fixed term and “make tax” for a month until general elections.
This is a very short-term investment perspective given that the Central Bank could once again move the interest rateso that the real yield is above inflation and thus decompress the parallel dollars that, at election time, tend to rise due to the effect of uncertainty.
In this context, a report from GCL of analysis regarding what happens with the rates, explained that although in the medium term a positive real rate may result, in the short term – compared to previous months – it does not exceed inflation expectations, which is considered crucial because the placements are for 30 days. However, if the Central Bank decides to raise the rate further, even with costs (in relation to aggravating the quasi-fiscal deficit), it may be able to work for a month.
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Pexel
In addition, Federico Zirulnikchief economist at the Center for Economic and Social Studies, indicates that it must be taken into account that, beyond the peak of August, as a consequence of the devaluation and the measures announced, “inflation is likely to drop somewhat by September” compared to the previous month.
For its part, LCG explains that, in a fixed term adjusted for inflation (CER) with a maturity of 3 months, it would yield approximately 35% in term (consistent with a 10.5% monthly inflation). Although it looks high compared to the traditional PF, “in the current context of uncertainty and volatility” placements lose appeal.
fixed term vs. dollar
In regards to exchange market, the devaluation -says LCG- it was not enough to decompress the currency gap but it was pronounced, at the same time that it promoted the nominality to a new floor. In this context, since Monday post PASS the free dollars that have been moving at a monthly rate of 10% in the case of MEP and 13% monthly for the blue. In the case of CCL, continues to climb at a monthly rate of over 27%, and an upward run in the free quotewhich can jeopardize the fixed term yield.
Source: Ambito
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