The Federal Reserve finished uploading interest rates and you’ll probably trim them by about one percentage point next year, according to chief economists at some of America’s biggest banks. USA.
Although it is likely that the US avoid a recessioneconomic growth will slow noticeably in the coming quarters, increasing unemployment and reducing inflation, according to the latest forecasts from the American Bankers Association Economic Advisory Committee.
“In view of the demonstrated and anticipated progress in matters inflationthe majority of Committee members believe that the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle has come to an end,” stated Simona Mocutachair of the 14-member panel and chief economist of State Street Global Advisors.
The US central bank is expected to keep the monetary policy rate unchanged at its meeting next weekalthough investors are divided on whether it will raise rates at the end of the year.
Interest rates: the new forecast of bankers
The ABA advisory committee includes economists from JPMorgan Chase & Co, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo & Co. Its forecasts are regularly presented to the Fed chairman, Jerome Powelland other members of the central bank board in Washington.
The committee believes that economic growth will slow at an annualized rate less than 1% in the next three quarters in response to the Fed’s previous interest rate hikes and to a tightening of credit conditionsaccording to the median of their forecasts.
Unemployment is expected to increase to 4.4% at the end of next year, from 3.8% in Augustwhile consumer price inflation will decline to 2.2% from 3.2% in July.
“According to the consensus of the Committee, “The chances of a soft landing have improved dramatically in the short term.”Mocuta declared to the press via Zoom. “But, at the same time, there is still Lots of doubts about the extent to which this extraordinary resilience that the economy has shown so far is sustainable.
The Committee considers that the likelihood of a recession next year are just below 50%.
Source: Ambito
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