Fixed term: what to take into account when investing in this option

Make a fixed term is, together with the purchase of Dollars of the instruments of investment best known for small saver. However, in such a changing scenario in economic terms and high inflationit is important that you know how to protect your savings or achieve a extra incomeespecially taking into account that the new data on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August and can bring changes in the performance of the term deposits.

Let us remember that, after the last primary elections, the Central Bank (BCRA) decided, among other measures, to modify the rate of the Fixed deadlines. Thus, said key variable rose 21 percentage points and became the 118% (TNA), which is equivalent to a 209% in annual effective terms (TEA) and a monthly effective return of the 9.7%.

In that way, the interest rates they went from 97% to 118% annually. Thus, by constituting a fixed term to 30 daysthe return for the saver became 9.7%. In that framework, as long as inflation remains below said number, it will continue to be a business.

Fixed term: does it serve as a hedge against inflation?

Before making a fixed termthe first thing to do is compare the profitability of the fixed term and compare it against the inflation.

“Although the rates went upstill were below of what can become inflation -from August-“, explained the economist and director of C&T Asesores Economicos, Camilo Tiscornia.

The CPI data published monthly by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses has not yet been released (INDEC). However, it is already known that in the last month, in the Buenos aires citythe IPCBA, prices rose by 10.8%. And that is an indication of what may happen at the national level.

In this sense, the financial advisor Gaston Lentini agrees that “the inflation is running at a much higher rate” but adds that constituting a fixed term is definitely better than doing nothingbut does not cover you from inflation“.

Investments: Fixed term or buying dollars?

Another key when deciding whether to make a fixed term is to analyze whether said investment It will be convenient in front of the Dollar purchase.

“If I consider that The dollar will rise at a faster rate of 118% annuallyso “I have to go buy a dollar”clarified Lentini. And his deduction is based, on the one hand, on the projections that the market makes for the dollar, on the one hand, and, on the other hand, on what has been happening with the blue in recent times.

And it is that he Dolar blue comes from registering his greatest weekly drop in 11 monthsbut had previously closed a strongly bullish August, with a rise of $185 (+33.6%), the largest monthly increase since April 2020.

In that framework, the director of S&T Economic Advisors I affirm that “with the jump that the dollars madeFor example, in the month of August, “The dollar has been a much more attractive investment.”compared to fixed deadlines.

It all depends on what the saver expects to happen with the illegal dollar in the coming months and, of course, also with the official and financiers. There is talk in the market of a possible new forward devaluation, after having taken the official exchange rate to $350, with a devaluation jump of 22% on August 14. The issue is if and when that will finally become a reality. That, with respect to the dollar regulated by the BCRA.

Meanwhile, regarding financiers, Tiscornia points out that, “in relation to the legal parallel exchange rates (the MEP and the CCL)“We know that the government is going to do everything possible to keep them quiet, but financiers have enormous volatility and, as we get closer to the elections, this may increase.”

Thus, the context is a key element to take into account when making the decision about where to put the pesos to protect the capital and make a profit that protects it from the economic ups and downs and, without a doubt, the dollar and inflation are two essential variables to follow.