The project of Budget 2024 prepared by the Government it was sent last Friday at Chamber of Deputies. In this text, some official projections of utmost importance in relation to the economy, such as the evolution of the inflationof the value of dollar and of Gross domestic product (GDP).
The bill prepared by the Ministry of Economy provides for a inflation of the 135% by 2023, a official dollar that in December will reach the $367 and one 2.5% drop of the GDP.
Meanwhile, the projections for 2024 show that the inflation will decelerate until reaching a rate of 69.5% annually and that dollar ends next year in $607. “He GDP is projected with a 2.75% recovery for 2024after the drop in the level of activity in 2023″, is expressed in the bill.
In this framework, the market is already analyzing How will these projections impact investments? and what level of feasibility They have the different goals set out in the 2024 Budget.
Budget 2024: are the stipulated goals feasible?
In general, market operators agree that the objectives of national budgets are often not met and that, therefore, They are not assigned greater importance. Besides, Andrés Reschinianalyst at F2 Soluciones Financieras, explains that “from a more technical point of view, the goals set are difficult to meet because they are accumulating growing imbalances and organize all that I would leave those goals behind and, not ordering it, too.”
For example, regarding the inflationlatest Survey of Market Expectations (REM) of BCRA which includes consulting firms, financial entities and local and international research centers, estimated a inflation of 169.3% for this year. However, in the national government’s text it speaks of an annual figure of 135%.
For its part, Mateo ReschiniSenior Research Analyst at Inviu, points out that the economic recovery projected for 2024 It also seems difficult to achieve since it depends on other measures that should be taken in relation, for example, to the economic opening.
“If you maintain a exchange rate at $607will probably hold a capital control and, except in the event that a lot of foreign currency enters, that may continue to suffer the activity as seen“, it states.
Regarding the exchange rate, the markets of future dollar adjusted its value to $630 for December of this year. In that sense, the projections of the Treasury Palace They clearly do not seem to be in line with market expectations.
Budget 2024: how will projections impact investments?
Can these influence projections in planning your investment strategies for 2024? All the consulted specialists agree that It is not advisable to take the projections as a reference when defining investments for the following year.
In that sense, the economist and financial advisor Elena Alonso maintained that the projections reflected in the Budget 2024 are unlikely to be fulfilled and that uncertainty widespread hurts investments and makes them investors they turn more cautiouswaiting to see how the variables are handled after December.
In the proposed framework, Alonso added that investors targeting classic alternativesthey usually buy Dollarsor do more conservative investmentsas the property acquisition.
For his part, the market expert Marcelo Bastante assured that until October 22 it is estimated that the official dollar and the financial they will continue under control. Therefore, he explained that this generates a opportunity for carry tradethat is to say, take advantage of high returns in pesos offered by the investment menu, such as bonuses that adjust for CER.
“For protect yourself of a possible exchange rate jump after October 22the recommendation would be to look for coverage in negotiable securities in dollars either dollar linked“, stated Bastante. Among the short bonds dollar linkedhe particularly mentioned the T2V4 and the TV24 as an investment alternative.
To access the dollar linked bondsalso highlighted the alternative of Mutual funds to invest in these types of instruments. “The advantage of these assets is that The investor can make the investment in pesosand you don’t need to spend dollars,” he clarified.
Source: Ambito
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