With Profits, 800,000 taxpayers with significant purchasing power benefit, while the beneficiaries of the VAT refund are 20 million. How does it affect the demand for dollars?
With less than a month to go before the presidential elections, there are several factors that are putting upward pressure on the Dolar blue. Economists fear that the new measures of the Ministry of Economy those tending to improve purchasing power run towards the purchase of the currency. At the time, when Sergio Massa announced the modification of Earnings, he warned: “Don’t buy dollars from me.”
With Profits, you benefit 800,000 taxpayers of significant purchasing power, while the beneficiaries of the VAT refund It’s 20 million. But, although the universe contemplated by the measure is smaller since it includes registered workers with a limit of $400,000, economists do not rule out that this improvement in salary will boost the demand for dollars.
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Blue dollar: what are the reasons that put pressure on the exchange rate
Camilo Tiscornia, economist and directors of CyT Economic Advisors in dialogue with Ambit, Wait for blue dollars, MEP and CCL, going forward, the outlook is upward and mentions the fact that the fiscal announcements of recent days will also do their part to put pressure in that direction. And, on the one hand, they imply more issuance and more pesos in the pockets that can go towards the dollar, and, on the other, more consumption, which generates inflationary expectations.
The greater firepower that the BCRA is managing to generate as a result of the implementation of the soybean dollar 4, which is allowing you to accumulate the purchasing series in the exchange market largest of the year (it already has 27 positive rounds) and thanks to which in September it has accumulated, to date, pockets of US$13 million, it is a data that can help relax the exchange front If necessary. In fact, it is thanks to that that it has been systematically intervening in the MEP market and, thus, arbitrates somehow to blue and CCL.
However, as the economist Tomás Tenconi points out, “everything would indicate that, going forward, the MEP dollar “There will continue to be a lot of intervention to calm devaluation expectations, although it is expected that there will be more demand as the elections approach” in all the parallel markets, a logical response from savers and investors to the electoral uncertainty.
Source: Ambito
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