He dollar is in a key week. Three days before the end of the Soybean Dollar 4 which allowed maintaining the financial dollars at bay, the tension in the markets increases four weeks before the General elections and analysts see different factors that can affect the currency.
Soybean dollar 4: is it continuing or is it ending?
Over the weekend, rumors in Chicago arose due to the possibility that the Government will need extend the soybean dollar 4 to get more dollars in the final stretch until October 22. But finally the Government confirmed that it will not continue. Despite the good results of the edition, the Central Bank failed to accumulate reserves which were allocated more than 70% to the intervention of the bonds.
In that sense, this week is key because the dollarizing pressure.
It is worth remembering that in the exchange market, the agricultural sector settled US$110 million, while the BCRA made net purchases of US$1 million. So far in September, the BCRA accumulated balance is positive, reaching US$516 million. Gross international reserves decreased by US$48 million, reaching a gross stock of US$27,202 million, which represents a decrease of US$17,397 million throughout the year 2023.
Unlike previous programs, which were characterized by establishing a exchange rate differential, on this occasion the agroexporters They had the option of selling 25% of the liquidations in the financial market.
Dollar: markets warn of “rearrangement” of financiers
The financial dollars They begin another week of slight increases as has been happening in recent weeks. However the lack of Dollars In the accumulated of September, it begins to generate expectations that an increase in prices is coming. exchange rates.
Starting next week the quote will not count dollar offer that tipped the Soy Dollar. We are waiting for signals from the Government to see what decision it will take, since they usually go up hand in hand with the CCL and the MEP and that is followed by a reaction from blue.
It will be a sensitive October when we fully enter the last three weeks ahead of the general elections and historically the currency It already has pressures for coverage purchases.
For the financial guru Salvador Di Stefano In a recent report, “there is no longer any doubt that in the summer we will see the dollar bill above $1,200, today at $680 the MEP dollar has a price that is a bargain.”
“Not only is it expected that the rearrangement of the financial dollars, after this last stage of relative calm, but also that interventions be intensified to contain pressures towards coverage, always subject to the evolution of the electoral scenarios given that the situation of weakened net reserves is recognized,” added analyst Gustavo Ber.
Dollar in the world at its highest
He dollar in the world is at a maximum of 10 months, while the yields of the Treasury bond reach their highest level since October 2007. Jerome Powell’s words on the possibility of continued monetary tightening of the Federal Reserve press on the emerging currencies.
These movements in key financial indicators such as Fed rates, although subtle, have wide-ranging impacts. global scale and, therefore, on Argentina.
If the rates do not budge in the US, The entry of capital from abroad is favored, returning to the North American economy to take advantage of these higher returns. For a country eager for foreign investment like Argentina, it is an “extra” difficulty on its already delicate situation.
On the other hand, the US bond yields At a high threshold they also make the financing cost for Argentina, which is reflected in a country risk (surcharge to issue debt).
Source: Ambito
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