Record blue dollar: the reasons why it jumped more than $40 in three days and what’s coming

He Dolar blue went up $45 in the last three days and already reaches $790is located at $5 off your intraday highwhat happened with $795, last August 16 (post-STEP). With a gap with the official dollar of the 125%the increase registered in recent days is worrying, although expected in the current electoral context. However, analysts find more than one cause that explains this escalation. What are they and what will come next?

For the economist and market expert Christian Butlerwhat we are seeing is “the beginning of a new dollarization process prior to the elections.” Remember that a similar dynamic occurred prior to the PASO and that, now, a few weeks before the general elections, it is repeated and that is putting upward pressure on the Dolar blue and the other parallels (since, for example, the Cash With Settlement exceeded $800 on the day).

However, he clarifies that he does not expect the dollars shot be as pronounced this time as the last because, at that moment, there was very strong talk of a devaluationwhich finally arrived after the elections.

The pre-electoral context

“The jump will not be exactly the same because I was very late before PASO the dollarbut always, before the elections, Argentina has had savers who switch to dollars to have a little more security in the face of electoral uncertainty,” he says. Butler.

For Gustavo Quintanaof PR Exchange Operatorsthis bullish process “is more of the same: a combination between negative expectations about the Government’s announcements, which snoop on inflation because they imply a greater injection of pesos into the market and, on the other hand, a logical reaction to an uncertain market”.

In the same sense, Joel Lupieriof Epyca Consultantsbelieves that the increase is given due to “a lack of predictability by policies announced by Sergio Massa and that involve a perspective of public sector financing problemswith its correlate in a strong emission forecast to have those expenses covered.”

Blue dollar: the reasons driving the rise

In short, the economist Federico Glustein points out that they can be synthesized in three important factors the causes of the rise:

• The first has to do with the advertisements of the bonuses for informal and measures that end up influencing the increase in the amount of circulating pesosof which many go towards the free dollar as a result of the loss of value of the peso.
• On the other hand, the already known restrictions on the operation of access to the official dollar and the purchase of financial for some sectors.
• And finally, there is the rise of financial dollarswhich, although it is controlled in the MEP, due to the frequent intervention of the Central Bank, if feels strong in the CCL.

The truth is that there is a strong pre-election uncertainty Added to that is the fact that the soybean dollar 4 it’s ending The Government is concerned about keeping the firepower of the BCRA in case you have to face a new exchange rate run in the coming days. There are too many pesos in the square for the call “Platita Plan” by Sergio Massa, who is the tax relief for various sectors and offer of new credits and bonuses for others.

Inflation: did whoever won for the dollar?

With everything, Lupieri consider that it is inflation is expected to continue rising and that people begin to increase their dollar demands in search of coverage to have a favorable position in case there is a new price increase.

However, it is worth mentioning that blue is late in its evolution this month regarding inflation given that up 7.21% so far in the month, against a price increase of 14.2% in August and an expected increase of around 11% for September. So, who bet on the dollar at the beginning of this monthfor now, it does not beat that variable. It also didn’t beat the fixed termwhich yields 9.7% monthly, with a nominal annual rate of 118%.

What’s coming for the blue dollar

Given the there is speculation about new post-electoral devaluationsYes, they could arrive better covered for a scenario of that type or for a currency run, if it occurred in the coming weeks.

The truth is that, as pointed out Gustavo Quintanaof PR Exchange Operatorsthe market seems to be looking for a new price level for the parallel dollars. What it is, that is a great unknown, but some estimate that It could be between $800 and $850 due to market dynamics and the electoral context.