Vaca Muerta dollar and oil with record price: time to invest in energy stocks?

The price of oil It has already climbed more than 30% in the last three months. What lies behind it is that global demand could exceed supply and, in addition, the reduction in supply puts extra pressure on the value of the barrel. At the local level, in turn, The Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, announced a new exchange measure that benefits oil companies. It is a “Vaca Muerta” dollar, which will work with a scheme similar to that of agriculture. Given this, it is worth asking, Is it time to buy papers linked to the oil sector?

WTI and Brent: what is behind its strong rise

The barrel of the WTI variety reached its highest levels in the year on Wednesday; while the Brent rate was negotiated at US$96.70, which leaves it one step away from overcoming the key barrier of US$100 per barrel.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported this week that US commercial oil inventories, excluding Strategic Petroleum Reserves, They are 4% below the average of the last five years for this time of year.

For its part, crude oil stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage facility are at their lowest since July 2022, according to EIA data. In fact, stocks at Cushing were falling to historically low levels due to strong refining and export demand.

Precisely this reduction in US crude oil stocks occurs when Saudi Arabia and Russiaas part of OPEC+, Voluntary production cuts extended of 1.3 million bpd until the end of the year, which worries markets about the shortage of supply.

Vaca Muerta Dollar: what it is about

As announced by the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, companies in the hydrocarbon sector They will be able to settle 25% of their exports at the exchange rate counted with settlement (CCL), which this Thursday closed at $819, without losing access to the single and free exchange market (MULC), where they obtain a wholesale exchange rate of $350.

In the Treasury they hope that there will be settlements for US$1.2 billion in the next two months. “We come in record of gas and oil production, and record of investment in the hydrocarbon sector. But with the election result, some began to think that uncertainty was putting a brake on investment in this sector. We do not want to stop generating employment, nor do we want to stop drilling.“said Massa.

Oil companies: time to enter?

Nicolas RosetGlobal Market Strategy Analyst at Cohenin dialogue with Ambit expressed: “The oil market you are experiencing a period of opportunity with oil trading above $90 a barrel, supported by Saudi Arabia’s commitment to reducing production and growing demand, especially in China and other regions.”

For Roset, this dynamic led to This upward trend will intensify even more since June when there was an OPEC cut.

“With oil prices on track to head towards triple digits, the CEDEAR of the ETF XLE To access the energy sector you can present yourself as a good chance or those of Chevron, Petrobras and Vista to invest in specific companies that have presented good returns so far this year and are undervalued compared to the median of the S&P 100,” the expert concluded.

For its part, Juan José VázquezHead of Research Cohenexpressed that “I like the sector. My favorite is Tenaris that can be purchased here with the ticker TEN”. In turn, from the Webinar Panorama of Adcap They assured that, in their recommendations for the international market, “we are very bullish in Brazil, especially with Petrobras. “We believe that Brazil is going to do very well in 2024.”

Lastly, since Invest in the Stock Market (IEB)in the sector Oil & Gas mentioned in their recommendations this Thursday to Vista (VIST), YPF, Pampa Energía (PAM), Transportadora de Gas del Sur (TGS), and Transportadora de Gas del Norte (TGN) “given that it is the main sector that presents fundamentals to continue growing under the current context: Vaca Muerta continues to grow despite a hostile macro environment and we believe that companies that have exposure to it are especially suitable to integrate the portfolio.

Vista: solid data drives it upwards

According to a report by PPIthis week Vista held its second Investor Day where the update of its 2024-2026 strategic plan was announced. When compared to the plan presented in December 2021, The update improves the estimates with respect to all relevant variables.

Vista now expects to reach production of 100kboe/d (+25%) and EBITDA of US$1.7 billion (+55%) by 2026. Furthermore, despite the expected increase in investment, The company maintained its expectation of accumulating US$1 billion of free cash flow by 2026.

“Even in the face of a negative scenario where the company makes its sales at an average price of US$55 per barrel, Vista estimates that it will be able to maintain its production growth target and will be able, at the same time, to achieve an accumulated cash generation of US$400m by 2026,” PPI explained.