Record blue dollar above $800: what is the ceiling that the City gurus see

He Dolar blue exceeds $800 for the first time and hits a new nominal historical record. This happens while stock exchange rates are also operating at high levels: with the CCL above $800 and the MEP above $700. The electoral context and uncertainty about the local economy (with the withdrawal of the soy dollar, the scarce reserves and the measures to alleviate inflation) added to a unfavorable international contextthey generate a pressure cooker on parallel exchange rates.

For the economist, Federico Glustein, Today’s blue climb has several aspects: “First with nominal wage increases and measures to encourage consumption, A part of that mass is inclined towards the purchase of foreign currency, especially those who do not know the MEP operation. At the same time, the withdrawal of the soybean dollar 4 and the context of currency shortages is feltabove all, adding the dollarization of portfolios prior to the electionsare a fundamental part of this new shot”.

In turn, the economist Natalia Motyl, also highlighted what happened in the international context. “New possible FED interest rate increases, the strengthening of the global dollar and geopolitical tensions between China and Taiwan. This threatens emerging markets such as Argentina and affects their local currencies,” he said.

Injection of pesos, end of the soy dollar, and elections

For Motyl, the injection of liquidity had a negative impact on expectations and that leads to a worsening of the fiscal problem. “We are also approaching the general elections, “The market discounts that there will be a correction of post-election variables and accelerates the dollarization of portfolios now.”he said and assured that the exchange rate is behind, it returned to pre-STEP levels, which generates a demand for dollars.

Finally, according to your vision, the BCRA’s decision to keep the interest rate stable below the inflation of August and September caused investors to exit local instruments and turn to foreign currency instruments.

In turn, the economist Gustavo Berexpressed: “I think the pre-electoral dollarization process is accelerating, as expected, but it also adds growing concerns about the dynamics of the fiscal deficit, monetary emission and the fall in the demand for money. The defensive and cautious stance of investors in the current context of political and economic uncertainty is also being reflected in the weakness of ADRs and the punishment of bonds in both dollars and local currency.”

Are there measures that can contain the rise of the blue dollar?

For the market analyst, Salvador Di Stefano, there are many measures that the Government took that will be effective. “First of all, The most effective will be the extension of the soybean dollar. The second has to do with the reduction of withholdings on milk. And the third, “the possibility that companies can make a capital contribution by entering dollars from abroad into the Cash with Settlement quote.”

How far could the blue dollar rise in the short term

For Di Stefano, next week “it will tend to stabilize.” With which the blue dollar, for her vision, It should not go beyond the area of ​​$830, $850. In this regard, he mentioned that the real in Brazil “had made a very important jump in recent days and today we are seeing a reversal. It had reached 5.07 and today it is piercing the zone of 5. So what we have is that If there is a revaluation of the real, that will help next week for the blue dollar to remain, find a ceiling and start looking for a value below 800“.

For its part, for Glustein, It should be noted that the CCL is located around $830, so the blue usually accompanies the movement of the other free dollar. “Today we can know that until the elections, there will be a rise effect with particular explosive effects, which could leave it between $810 and $820 for the next few weeksalthough under the current scenario we could fall short and greatly exceed the aforementioned barrier.

“The blue before the elections can reach $880 and after the elections, by the end of October, the $900 in the best scenario. If we enter a dynamic of strong acceleration of portfolio dollarization, it will reach the $1000 in the last week of October”he added Motyl.

Lastly for Gustavo Ber: “Within a process of high inflation, and nominality of the economy, dollars should continue to rearrange upwards at least at that rateeven within a high exchange rate scenario that reflects a level of panic.”