The blue dollar started this week revitalized and closed at the $945. It reached a new record and rose 7.4% daily, while, in nominal terms, it rose $65 and, in a single day, marked an increase equal to the one it had had throughout September (which was a relatively calm month for the casual dollar). The gap with the official is already 170%. Everything indicates that it could continue to rise and the big question for small savers is whether it is time to buy or sell.
Blue dollar: buy or sell?
In this context, the economist Jorge Neyro points out that, “given the demand for coverage that exists, it does not seem prudent to estimate price ceilings,” which is why analysts consider that it is difficult to know if it is convenient to buy or sell the blue dollar now.
The big problem that points out Andrés Reschinifrom F2 Soluciones Financieras, in this sense it is that “value is driven by enormous uncertainty”. In this context, everything is relative and supply dictates, conditioned by demand. “Right now, it is the price at which it is obtained and, therefore, it is valid,” he points out. Gustavo Quintanafrom PR Change Operators.
However, for the economic advisor Salvador Distéfano, “The blue dollar above $900 is not a purchase price.” It is not that he rules out that it could still go up more and exceed $1,000, but what he considers key is that There are assets that can have an even better projectionsuch as, for example, stocks or dual bonds, which adjust for the price of the dollar, or hard dollar sovereigns.
For economist Christian Buteler, to reach the levels of the 2020 bullfight there is still a long way to go in real terms, updating the blue dollar for inflation (only around $1,200 could we be talking about a similar level). Thus, he does not rule out “that it could continue to rise, especially in a context in which the shortage of dollars is much less than at that time.”
Blue dollar: uncertainty makes decision making difficult
On the other hand, we must also take into account that one of the ghosts that appears in the City at this moment is that of “overshooting”, which is when the blue dollar overreacts to an adverse context, just as happened in the later stage. to the primary elections, when the Government devalued the peso by 22% and the illegal exchange rate rose $155 in three days, but then readjusted downwards.
Thus, Quintana warns that “it is difficult to analyze the dynamics of these days since The price is contaminated by several factors: political, economic, total uncertainty and, therefore, it is not easy to say whether it is to buy or sell.”
However, he takes the risk of believing that the expectations and electoral uncertainty, added to the current economic conditions and the prospects for the future and next year, would give the feeling that “it is to be bought”, but he recognizes that “it is a “A debatable issue because the temptation to dollarize is very strong in the current scenario.” It all depends on the perspective that each person has for the dollar.
And for Reschini, “If the Government manages to generate some confidence, we would have to see the price of the blue dollar fall”, but, if uncertainty continues to gain ground, he anticipates that we will continue to see tension.
Other alternative instruments to blue offer good coverage
Zorzoli also warns that it is difficult to think that the dollar can go down in the medium term, which is why hedging through this instrument always appears as a reliable option for the investor or saver.
However, consider more interesting to encourage them to explore slightly more profitable options: “For those who are less risk averse, one possibility may be to bet on coverage with sovereign securities in dollars, which in addition to being arbitraged against the price of the currency, currently have more than attractive returns.”
Meanwhile, for those more conservative, he mentions the possibility of purchasing some negotiable obligation in Dollar linked as attractive.
Another option, of course, is to directly go towards the MEP dollar through the purchase and sale of sovereign bonds, which cost much less than the blue.
Source: Ambito
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