According to economists consulted by Ámbito, everything depends on the saver’s risk after the rate increase ordered by the Central Bank.
He Central Bank (BCRA) arranged increase the interest rate (reference) of the fixed term to the 133%from the 118% previous annual. The decision after the INDEC spread the september inflationwhich marked a 12.7% (which slightly exceeded the 12.4% in August). The rate adjustment implied a increase of 15 percentage points (1,500 basis points). With this measure, the monetary entity seeks relieve pressure on the dollar. But is the time right to do one this week before the election?
According to economist Elena Alonso in dialogue with Ámbito, “the fixed term is an attractive investment when it is used to pay a loan or to accumulate interest while saving money intended to pay credit cards after closing. This generates additional interest and capital that was not previously available.”
Meanwhile, Claudio Caprarulo, director of the consulting firm Analytica, does not clearly see that sufficient incentives are generated to place the pesos in a fixed term. “There are many incentives to dollarize, Even if a very positive real interest rate is set, the market may still dollarize. because we have as a possible winner of the elections a candidate who will try to dollarize,” he says in dialogue with Ámbito. In any case, he recognizes that the proposals of the candidate for La Libertad Avanza (LLA) “generate more uncertainty” than the current situation.
Dollar Dollar Pesos Blue
Mariano Fuchila
Dollar vs fixed term: positions in pesos are dismantled
Under this panorama, the economists consulted by Ambit observe a notable disarmament of positions in pesos, although at the moment it is not alarming. “In September fixed terms fell sharply, and those that fell the most were retail ones. That means that the small saver is taking money out of fixed terms and a large part of it goes to the dollar,” highlights Caprarulo.
Federico Machado Busanieconomist at the Policy Observatory for the National Economy (OPEN), provides precision about this financial movement: “Since the PASO, the stock of fixed-term deposits fell practically 20% in real terms” he assures, but clarifies that he had as a counterpart a increase in savings and checking account deposits. “This happens because people do not withdraw the cash to save them, but use it to buy another asset (for example, dollar) and the person who sells them returns those pesos to the system, but in a shorter term,” explains the specialist.
However, for specialists Fixed-term investment is still a considerable option. Economist Machado Busani does calculations and concludes that, with a monthly rate of 11%, the parallel dollar should reach $1,200 in mid-December to match the fixed term. For his part, for Lupieri, staying in pesos with this rate may be advisable “for the most risk-averse investors”. Both understand that the situation is subject to the proximity of the elections and weigh the option of dollarize
Source: Ambito
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