After the shooting of recent weeks that seemed to find no ceiling in sight, The dollar in the Matba-Rofex futures market suffered widespread falls this Tuesday, October 17, as a result of the intervention of the Central Bank, in the midst of a significant dollarization of portfolios just days before the presidential election.
Although it had already been doing so in recent weeks, the participation of the monetary authority increased during the day in the shortest terms, which seemed to condition the rest of the months, which recorded declines of up to almost $100 in their prices.
Thus, the currency closed almost stable at $370.05 by the end of October, and dropped $9.90 (-2.2%) to $435 by the end of November, a price that continues to reflect a jump of 28%, compared to the previous month.
“A significant intervention was observed on short positions, which mainly has a contagion effect on the rest”indicated market sources.
After the spiraling increases of recent weeks, it was from December onwards that the greatest decreases were observed. In effect, the dollar fell at the end of the year $54 (-5.7%) to $890, with which the market projects a shot of almost 85% in the official exchange rate.
Already by January 2024, the currency sank $87 (-7.4%) to $1,093. For February, meanwhile, the dollar lost $66 (+4.9%) to $1,269, While for March fell $73.50 (-5%) to $1,400.
The most important setback of the day was noted April 2024, since the exchange rate for the end of that month It plummeted $97.90 (-6.1%) to $1,501.10. Then, May showed a drop of $78 (-4.95) to $1,600, and June recorded a decrease of $99 (-5.7%) to $1,630.
“With an active BCRA, the price relaxes a little due to the fact that the remaining firepower is quite a bit,” said a market source.
Some operators believe that the currency at the end of the year was very expensive (taking into account a rate above 2,000% given the possibility of perhaps disorderly dollarization or at an exchange rate higher than the current CCL dollar, which generates a lot of uncertainty for the entire market.
To this expectation we must add some US$50,000 million from importers, who have taken strong positions in futures hedging, which has caused prices to overheat in recent weeks.
In the market, it is estimated that until the end of last week, the BCRA’s sold position would be at US$1,980 million, still a low level compared to the official firepower of US$8,000 million, agreed with the IMF.
Under this scenario, the blue dollar, in the marginal market reference, rebounded $5 to $985.
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Source: Ambito
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